U.S. natural gas futures slipped in early trading on July 15 as soft LNG feedgas flows from terminal maintenance offset strong summer cooling demand. One analyst argues the deferred winter contracts still look underpriced against the market’s recent history.
Nymex natural gas traded off 0.9% at $2.878/mmBtu in early dealing on July 15, held back even as summer heat kept demand firm. Reduced LNG feedgas flows tied to terminal maintenance partially offset the pull from cooling needs.
Demand should stay strong in the coming days as high pressure sits over much of the U.S., with highs from the upper 80s to the 100s, NatGasWeather.com said in a note. Yet power-sector use has been underperforming this summer as renewables take a greater share of supply, the forecaster added.
According to NatGasWeather.com, “Overall, weather patterns lean to the bullish side”, though the forecaster noted the picture would improve with hotter readings over the East in the 6-15 day period.
The front month recently printed a two-month low near $2.90, after natural gas fell more than 6% on July 9, its worst session since March. FXEmpire analyst Navnoor Bawa expects the front of the curve to stay rangebound into autumn.
His attention is on the deferred contracts. The January 2027 contract, quoted near $4.25, looks light to him, with a base case of $4.50 to $5.00 by early winter as the market rebuilds a winter risk premium. He points to a 185 Bcf storage surplus, production near 110 Bcf/d, and Freeport LNG maintenance as the factors capping the front end, against the EIA’s $3.57 average forecast for Q4 2026.
The near-term tension is plain: real summer heat is pulling one way while maintenance and ample supply pull the other. Whether winter reprices the curve is the question traders now weigh.
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