SpaceX shares jumped almost 10% heading into the company's first earnings report since its June IPO, due after the bell Tuesday. Analysts polled by LSEG expect revenue of $6.93 billion and a loss of 26 cents a share, even as the stock stays down from its listing price. Heavy AI spending, a rare sell rating and billions in short-seller profits are all shadowing the report.
SpaceX shares jumped almost 10% on Monday, hours before the company reports fiscal second-quarter results after the bell Tuesday — its first earnings disclosure since a record initial public offering in June. It's the reusable rocket maker's debut appearance before Wall Street in this capacity, and investors are jittery.
Since opening at $150 on June 12, the stock has dropped 24%, wiping out close to $500 billion in market cap, even after Monday's rally. SpaceX lost $4.9 billion last year, largely due to heavy investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Revenue split across space, connectivity and AI
Analysts polled by LSEG expect the company to post revenue of $6.93 billion and a loss of 26 cents a share for the quarter. StreetAccount estimates put Space segment revenue at $835 million, Connectivity at $3.83 billion and AI at $2.18 billion.
Connectivity, anchored by the Starlink satellite internet service, was SpaceX's only profitable business last year, generating $11.39 billion in revenue and $4.42 billion in income, or 61% of total sales. The AI unit has yet to turn a profit, and even the launch business, which counts on large NASA contracts, is losing money.
AI spending drives a rare sell rating
SpaceX reported capital expenditures of $10.1 billion in the first three months of the year, with AI expenses accounting for $7.7 billion of the total. Analysts on average expect second-quarter capex of $13.2 billion, according to FactSet.
Separately, Phillip Capital set a price target of $75, about 35% below Monday's closing price. That made it just the second of more than three dozen analysts tracked by FactSet to rate the stock a sell, after Morningstar. The firm cited SpaceX's losses and negative cash flows expected until at least 2030.
Short sellers brace for lock-up expiration
Short sellers were up about $8.3 billion in paper profits as of Friday's close, according to S3 Partners. That windfall comes as share lock-up restrictions start expiring this week, a possible catalyst for a deeper slide if a flood of new shares hits the market.
Source: CNBC
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