Goldman Sachs cut its Q3 delivery forecast for Tesla to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000, citing weaker sales trends in China, the US, and Europe. The bank also lowered its Q4 forecast, and investors want to see greater contribution from Tesla's other growth initiatives, including the Cybercab robotaxi.
Goldman cuts delivery forecasts across key markets
Goldman Sachs has cut its delivery forecast for Tesla, citing weaker sales trends across the company's most important markets. The bank slashed its Q3 delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000. It also lowered its Q4 forecast to 475,000 vehicles from 515,000.
Goldman has noted that monthly and weekly sales in China, the US, and Europe are tracking below earlier expectations. As a result, its new Q3 projection sits below the consensus estimate of 456,000 vehicles. Its new Q4 forecast, however, remains above the consensus estimate of 462,000.
That gap makes the fourth quarter an important test of whether the weakness is temporary. If production and demand improve as the Model Y L becomes more widely available, that could validate a temporary-weakness argument. However, if deliveries stay weak despite the product ramp and seasonal support, Tesla would face a harder explanation over its growth trajectory.
Autonomy bets face regulatory scrutiny
As the core vehicle business shows weakness, Tesla's investment case increasingly depends on its autonomy initiatives driving growth. The Full Self-Driving system and the Cybercab robotaxi sit at the center of that transition.
Cybercab has moved from a concept toward commercial deployment, with Tesla offering robotaxi services in Austin, Texas. Yet the rollout has drawn regulatory scrutiny because the program uses cars without a steering wheel or pedals. NHTSA is investigating whether Tesla properly self-certified the vehicle as compliant with federal motor vehicle safety standards.
Tesla needs newer products and autonomy-related services to drive its next growth phase. If the core vehicle business keeps weakening while FSD and Cybercab adoption develops slowly, the transition to new growth drivers could take longer and cost more than investors expect.
Investors split between hedge funds and short sellers
Institutional positioning in Tesla offers a mixed signal. The number of hedge funds holding Tesla shares decreased to 116 in Q2 from 123 in Q1. Among major holders, BAMCO increased its stake 5% to 12.5 million shares, while D. E. Shaw reduced its position to 4.3 million shares and Holocene Advisors held its position at 3.6 million shares.
Short interest points to a more cautious stance. As of August 31, 74.2 million Tesla shares were sold short, with two days to cover, representing 2.35% of the public float. Bearish bets increased 7.27% from the previous reading.
Neither hedge funds nor short sellers establish the stock's future direction, but the positioning reinforces the debate around the stock.
Source: Insider Monkey
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