Iran-backed militias struck Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline and a military base over a 48-hour window this week, forcing a shutdown that sent Brent crude past $100 a barrel. The same forces have gained ground along the Red Sea, and prediction markets now see only a slim chance the pipeline reopens within days.
Brent crude spikes as pipeline goes dark
Iran-backed militias launched coordinated strikes against Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline and the Sharurah military base over a 48-hour window this week, forcing a precautionary shutdown of one of the world's most important energy arteries. Brent crude immediately spiked to between $100 and $108 per barrel, a price range that hadn't been a regular fixture since the early days of the Ukraine war.
The pipeline stretches roughly 1,200 kilometers across the Saudi desert and carries an estimated 4-5% of the world's oil supply, making it a linchpin of global energy logistics rather than a purely domestic asset.
Two fronts, one campaign
The first wave came around September 11-12, when drone strikes launched from Iraq's Maysan province targeted the pipeline infrastructure. Reports indicate injuries and damage in the Riyadh and Medina regions, though exact casualty figures remain unclear. Then on September 13, Houthi forces in Yemen fired missiles and drones at the Sharurah base, while also seizing stretches of the Red Sea coast, one of the world's busiest shipping corridors.
Iran has separately been restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil each day, making the pipeline's overland route more essential to Saudi exports. Baghdad, whose territory hosted the drone launches, closed its border crossings with Iran and opened a joint investigation, while Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi dismissed the military commanders in the area where the launches occurred.
Markets price a slow restart
Prediction markets tracked by Vera show the odds of a restart by September 22 at 14.5%, down from 24% a day earlier. The September 30 window has also softened, with the probability of a restart falling to 40.5% from 60% over the past 24 hours. Markets stay more upbeat further out: the October 31 window carries a 78% chance of resolution.
For scale, the last comparable strike on Saudi oil infrastructure was the 2019 Abqaiq attack, which knocked out roughly half of Saudi production and sent prices up nearly 15% in a single day before Aramco restored output faster than expected.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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