Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin since the CPI-driven rally, delivering nearly 2x BTC’s ROI so far in Q3. With ETH now queued for staking and ETF flows tilting its way, the question is whether it can finally break the RSI topping pattern that has capped it since August 2025.
Ethereum is testing a bearish pattern that has held for nearly a year, and rising staking demand may be what breaks it. Since topping in August 2025, ETH has repeatedly formed a local top within two to three days whenever its daily RSI moved above 65. As of press time, RSI was back above that level.
The pattern facing its next test
If ETH tops out again, the bearish structure stays intact. But if the price keeps consolidating instead, it would mark the first break in the pattern and could signal Ethereum’s first bullish shift since April 2025.
Much of the market has pointed to the CPI report as the trigger, reigniting risk appetite and fueling a risk-on rally. Since the CPI release, ETH has rallied more than 10%, making it the best-performing asset among the top 10 over the past week.
The move gained momentum once resistance gave way. According to CryptoQuant, nearly $30 million in ETH futures positions were liquidated on Binance within a single hour as ETH broke above $1,900, driving a nearly 5% rally in the ETH/BTC pair.
Where the flows diverge
Institutional positioning tells a different story from the short-term rotation. According to SoSoValue, spot ETH ETFs have attracted more than $200 million in net inflow so far this month, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $11.27 million. That works out to a flow divergence of more than $211 million in Ethereum’s favor.
The same trend is playing out on-chain. 2.6 million ETH has been queued for staking over the next 45 days, an additional 6.5% jump against an existing staking base of 40 million. If the pace continues, total staked ETH would climb to 42.6 million in the near term.
Conviction over yield
This demand is building even as Ethereum’s staking APR has dropped back to 2.6%, its lowest level since early Q1. Investors are continuing to lock up ETH despite lower yields, a sign that long-term conviction rather than yield alone is driving the demand.
BitMine’s recent report reinforces the case. The company generated $45.7 million in ETH staking revenue for the three months ended May 31, 2026, while staking approximately 4.9 million ETH. Even with yields at 2.6%, Ethereum keeps generating recurring income, which could be the early sign of ETH breaking away from its RSI topping pattern and into a new phase of relative strength.
Source: AMBCrypto
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