NYDIG has sketched a scenario in which bitcoin slides to a cycle low of $38,000-$39,000 by October, if the 2025-2026 downturn matches the depth of past bear markets. The firm stopped short of calling it a forecast, and rival desks such as K33 Research argue the bottom may already be in.
Bitcoin financial services firm NYDIG has mapped out a path in which bitcoin's slide extends to $38,000-$39,000 by October, should the current downturn follow the depth and duration of the market's previous major resets. The scenario appeared in the firm's second-quarter review, published last week.
Why the four-year cycle is back in focus
The firm said the 2025-2026 drawdown is bringing the four-year cycle narrative back into focus, because the timing and structure increasingly resemble the prior reset years of 2014, 2018 and 2022, even though the path has not matched those drawdowns exactly.
Bitcoin's four-year cycle tracks a historical rhythm of a peak, a year-long contraction, and a recovery, loosely anchored to the network's halving schedule. The bear markets of 2014, 2018 and 2022 produced peak-to-trough declines in the range of 75% to 85%.
How the math lands on $38,000
The arithmetic is direct. Applying a 2022-style decline of roughly 70% to the October 2025 peak of $126,080 lands almost exactly on the firm's $38,000-$39,000 corridor, with the timing pointing to a potential floor by October 2026.
But NYDIG held back from treating the number as a prediction. It noted that 2025 was bitcoin's least volatile year on record, which could compress the drawdown into a shallower landing. In an earlier note, the firm added that the market has seen "no long-term-holder capitulation, no terminal insolvencies, and no reset."
Where the desks disagree
The $38,000 scenario sits at the bearish end of the major desk calls. K33 Research has argued the dip near $60,000 already marked this bear market's maximum drawdown, with consolidation between $60,000 and $75,000 ahead. Standard Chartered has similarly suggested the bottom formed around the $59,000 level, while Galaxy Digital has floated a decline toward $40,000.
Context frames the debate: bitcoin traded near $64,500 at the time of the report, down almost 30% since the start of the year and roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high. Earlier this month the market carved out a 21-month low when bitcoin crashed to $58,035, briefly wiping about $40 billion from the wider crypto economy in a single day.
With more than half of all BTC sitting at an unrealized loss, analysts agree the market is late in the contraction but remain split on how much pain is left.
Source: Bitcoin News
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