Bitcoin could extend toward $90,000–$93,000 if Treasury yields ease and inflation data keeps supporting a weaker labor market, according to Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang. She said falling Fed rate-hike odds have already lifted the price, but buyers still need to clear resistance near $87,400 to confirm a breakout.
Bitcoin has gained support from a drop in October rate-hike odds to roughly 23% from about 64%, but a move toward $93,000 still depends on lower Treasury yields and stronger buying, Zhang told crypto.news. Despite supportive ETF flows, she said repeated failures to hold above $87,000 suggest sellers are still absorbing incoming demand.
Bitcoin needs buying support to clear $87,400
Zhang identified roughly $87,400 as the price buyers need to reclaim on a daily or weekly closing basis. Alongside that close, she wants continued ETF inflows and stronger spot purchases before treating any advance as a convincing breakout.
She described the current obstacle as profit-taking and existing supply absorbing institutional demand. In her reading, Bitcoin's inability to keep trading above $87,000 shows that positive fund flows have yet to overcome selling around its recent highs. Her next upside levels sit at $90,000 and $93,000, while she places downside support at $84,000 and $82,000.
Weak payrolls have cut October hike odds
Using data available as of Oct. 5, Zhang put the CME FedWatch probability of an October rate hike at roughly 23%, compared with about 64% one week earlier. She linked the shift to September payroll growth of just 29,000. According to her Oct. 5 assessment, "The Fed repricing has already provided a meaningful boost to Bitcoin," she said.
ETF inflows have not forced a breakout
According to Zhang, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.65 billion during September and roughly $134 million across October's first two trading sessions. She called the inflows supportive but said their size has not yet been enough on its own to force Bitcoin through resistance.
Inflation remains the main risk to the forecast
Zhang listed stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index or Producer Price Index readings, renewed oil-driven inflation, hawkish Fed guidance and another rise in long-term Treasury yields among the threats to her forecast. Any of those developments could restore rate-hike expectations and push Bitcoin back toward $84,000, with $82,000 the next major support, she said.
Source: crypto.news
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