Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say AI-related debt issuance has already topped the levels either bank forecast a year ago, with hyperscaler leverage nearly doubling in six months. Both banks also describe a market that is growing pickier, rewarding top-rated borrowers while asking harder questions of riskier AI infrastructure players.
AI-related borrowing has blown past what Wall Street expected just a year ago. Goldman Sachs estimates that $489 billion in AI-related debt has been issued so far in 2026, already above the $322 billion the bank had forecast in 2025. Morgan Stanley projects the full-year total will reach nearly $570 billion in global AI-related debt issuance for 2026.
The numbers behind the borrowing spree
The driver is hyperscaler spending on chips, power, and data centers. Morgan Stanley expects hyperscaler capital expenditure needs to likely exceed $1 trillion in 2027. The riskier end of the market is growing even faster. Goldman reported AI-linked leveraged finance issuance at $88 billion year-to-date in 2026, up from $20 billion in the same period last year. High-yield AI infrastructure supply reached $40 billion in 2026, already more than the $12 billion issued in all of 2025.
Leverage is climbing fast
Borrowing isn't the only metric moving quickly. Aggregate gross leverage among hyperscalers has surged from approximately 0.9x to 1.8x in the last six months, according to the two banks' analyses — meaning these companies now owe roughly twice as much relative to what they generate as they did half a year ago. The analyses also point to off-balance-sheet liabilities totaling approximately $3 trillion, including lease and purchase commitments.
Investors are getting choosier
Both banks describe diminishing risk appetite, particularly for lower-rated borrowers, with interest clustering around investment-grade offerings. That is creating a two-speed market: a top-rated hyperscaler can still raise enormous sums with ease, while a smaller, more leveraged AI infrastructure player may face harder questions and higher yields. Investment-grade tech giants look well positioned to keep funding their capex plans, but the pressure falls on lower-rated borrowers that rely far more heavily on debt markets.
If hyperscaler capex does climb past $1 trillion in 2027 as Morgan Stanley expects, the leverage ratio has room to keep rising. And if analysts and rating agencies start treating more of the roughly $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments like debt, perceived leverage could jump further still.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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