Bitcoin pulls back from multi-month highs as US-Iran ceasefire faces pressure & momentum fades

Bitcoin gained strongly last week, marking a third consecutive week of gains and rose to a multi-month high of $78.2K, before pulling back over the weekend to trade around $74.4K at the start of the new week amid doubts over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire.

Despite the weekend decline, the broader crypto market has still posted solid gains over the past 7 days. Bitcoin is up 4.7% over the past seven days, Ethereum has risen 3.5%, and XRP has gained 5.7% across the same period.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation increased from $2.42 trillion at the start of last week to a peak of $2.63 trillion on Friday, before easing back to around $2.51 trillion at the time of writing.

Market sentiment also improved. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 27 (Fear), up from 16 last week and 11 a month ago. This marks its highest level since mid-March — signalling a gradual recovery in confidence, albeit still cautious.

Institutional and corporate demand remains supportive

Institutional demand remained robust last week as geopolitical tensions temporarily eased.

According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $663.9 million in net inflows on Friday — the largest daily inflow since mid- January.

Weekly net inflows reached $996.3 million, marking a third consecutive week of positive flows and putting April on track for $1.62 billion in inflows so far.

Corporate demand also remains a key pillar

Strategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, posted his well-known “orange dot” chart over the weekend — a signal often interpreted by markets as a precursor to further Bitcoin purchases.

This follows recent large acquisitions, including a $1 billion purchase on 13 April and a $330 million purchase the week prior. Strategy now holds approximately 780,897 BTC, with an average purchase price of $75,577, putting the firm’s holdings worth roughly $58 billion.

While these flows from Strategy and ETFs are not always enough to drive sustained upside on their own, their persistence helps absorb supply and provides an important support layer. Persistent buying could support the BTC price higher.

Macro backdrop: optimism fades as tensions resurface

Bitcoin’s pullback over the weekend reflects a shift back towards macro uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions have re-emerged after President Trump accused Iran of violating ceasefire terms, and vice versa, dampening risk sentiment and raising doubts over its durability.

While further US–Iran talks were expected this week, Iran has signalled it may not participate. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed — a key concern for global energy markets. This marks a reversal from last week’s optimism, when markets priced in a potential end to the conflict and even a reopening of the strait.

As a result, oil prices fell 13% last week, easing inflation concerns and pushing Treasury yields lower in an environment that supported risk assets, including Bitcoin and equities.

Indeed, US stocks rallied strongly last week, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite both reaching record highs.

However, sentiment has since softened. Oil prices have jumped 5% on Monday, and US futures are falling at the start of the week as Middle East escalation concerns rise.

Why macro still dominates Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro conditions. Higher oil prices raise inflation expectations, push Treasury yields higher, tighten financial conditions, and reduce liquidity — all of which tend to weigh on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Conversely, easing oil prices and lower yields support BTC by improving liquidity conditions. That dynamic continues to dominate price action.

Signs of exhaustion and rising distribution

While the broader trend remains intact, there are growing signs that momentum is fading. Bitcoin has faced repeated rejection in the $75K–$78K range, suggesting strong resistance and a lack of follow-through buying.

At the same time, on-chain data points to increasing profit-taking.

Short-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has remained consistently around or above 1, indicating that recent buyers are selling into strength and locking in gains. This behaviour is typical of a distribution phase, where supply gradually enters the market.

However, the fact that SOPR is not breaking sustainably below 1 suggests the market has not entered full capitulation. Instead, this reflects a more controlled environment, where selling pressure is rising but not yet overwhelming.

Positioning looks fragile

Derivatives positioning also highlights a lack of clear conviction. The Bitcoin long/short ratio suggests a balanced market, with neither bulls nor bears in full control. This type of setup often reflects indecision rather than trend strength.

At the same time, intermittent spikes in long positioning indicate that traders are still attempting to position for upside continuation — but without confirmation from price action. This creates a fragile structure, where even modest downside moves could trigger liquidations.

Miners’ selling pressure begins to rise

The miners’ position index MPI has recently turned positive after an extended period in negative territory, signalling that miners are starting to sell again. The shift is important even if the current levels don’t indicate aggressive distribution.

The chart suggests that miners are taking advantage of the higher price to realise profits. Historically, such behaviour tends to shift supply pressure during rallies, especially when the price is testing key levels. Therefore, it could suggest that selling activity may increase if Bitcoin fails to break above the resistance.

It is also worth noting that the Puell Multiple remains low as miner revenues are not elevated compared to historical averages and miners are not under strong financial pressures to sell aggressively, which limits the downside.

However, the metric is not in a deep undervaluation zone either, meaning there isn’t a strong accumulation phase or cycle bottom; instead, it signals neutral market conditions.

Technical picture: resistance holding firm

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has risen above the downtrend from its $126.6K peak, but the failure to break above the $75K–$78K resistance zone suggests that upside momentum is weakening.

Repeated rejection at this level, combined with rising profit-taking and fragile positioning, suggests the market may be transitioning from accumulation to early distribution rather than entering a sustained breakout phase.

Bitcoin needs to rise above the 80,000 level to be on firmer footing, bringing 85,000 into focus.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent rally has been supported by improving institutional demand and a temporary easing in macro pressures. However, that backdrop is already beginning to shift and remains very volatile.

Renewed geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and higher Treasury yields are reintroducing macro headwinds, while on-chain data shows increasing profit-taking and early signs of distribution from both investors and miners. At the same time, positioning remains fragile, with a lack of clear conviction on either side of the market.

Taken together, this suggests that while downside risks are still relatively contained, upside momentum is weakening at a critical resistance zone.

Open free account

Trading involves risk.