OPEC cut its 2026 oil demand growth forecast for a third straight month, yet WTI holds firm below $80 as Middle East supply risks keep crude bid. A decisive break above $80.17 would open the path toward $83.37.
WTI crude sits at roughly $79.38 and cannot yet clear the $80.17 resistance area, the level that stands between the current rally and its next leg higher. The price has climbed hard from a $66.83 low, but small candlesticks with long wicks now indicate a period of uncertainty following that strong move.
OPEC trims demand again as supply recovers
OPEC cut its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day, its third consecutive downgrade, as global consumption expectations weakened. The group expects the world to consume 1.94 million bpd more in 2027 once geopolitical tensions deescalate.
Supply, meanwhile, is climbing back. Output from OPEC and its allies rose to 36.28 million bpd in June as Gulf Arab members gradually increased production. Global oil supply jumped 4.1 million bpd in June to 98.8 million bpd, though production still trails pre-war figures by 9.4 million barrels daily, according to IEA data. Shipments improved as traffic across the Hormuz Strait resumed on a partial basis.
Where WTI and Brent stand
WTI remains on a rising trendline, with the 50 ema at $75.62 and 100 ema at $75.12 both providing support. A move above resistance would target the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $83.37, while a break below the 0.382 level at $77.05 would weaken the structure.
Brent trades around $84.47 after breaking out of a longer-term down-trending channel and taking out the 0.50 Fib level at $84.07. It has since consolidated just above that area, with buyers defending the level against short-term profit taking. Resistance sits at $87.34, while a break below $80.83 would neutralise the bullish view.
Gas demand slips as LNG stalls
The IEA forecasts global gas demand dropping 0.5% in 2026 as LNG shipping stays in a lull after the disruption of Hormuz, which carried 20% of the world’s LNG shipments. Tanker transits have shown encouraging signs of recovery since the June ceasefire agreement. Natural gas itself trades at $2.89, boxed between $2.85 support and $2.94 resistance.
The demand cuts pull one way and the supply risks pull the other, leaving crude’s next move hostage to a single Fibonacci level at $80.17.
Source: FXEmpire
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