USD/JPY has cracked below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2025, extending a slide that followed what Bank of Japan money market data suggests was a large-scale currency intervention last week. That data points to an apparent coordinated yen-buying operation between Tokyo and Washington, while technical charts show the pair testing key retracement support.
USD/JPY fell an additional 0.58% Monday, extending last week's slide below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2025.
The Bank of Japan's July money market data suggests Japan conducted approximately ¥5.3 trillion in currency intervention on Friday to support the yen. A reported liquidity shortfall of around ¥11.4 trillion is consistent with a large-scale intervention operation. That intervention appears to have been a rare coordinated effort between Japan's Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Treasury Department — the first such joint yen-buying operation since 2011.
USD/JPY's fall from 163.97 extends lower today. Strong support is still expected from the 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76, which could bring a rebound at least on the first attempt. On the upside, a break above 157.95 minor resistance would turn intraday bias neutral first. A sustained break of 154.76/155.01 would pave the way to the 61.8% retracement at 149.07.
As long as 155.01 structural support holds, the larger uptrend is still expected to continue through 163.97 once the current correction completes. A firm break of 155.01, however, would raise the chance that USD/JPY is already in a larger-scale correction. That would open the way to a deeper fall back toward the 139.87 2025 low in the medium term.
Sources: Investinglive, ActionForex
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