Brent and WTI crude both rose as investors weighed the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said negotiations to reopen the strait are progressing, but Iranian officials have not confirmed a final deal with Oman, and prediction markets still put the odds of an agreement by August 15 at only 45%.
Brent crude traded at $83.85 a barrel and WTI at $80.66 on Tuesday, reflecting geopolitical risk tied to the Gulf. The move suggests traders are pricing in potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping passage for crude oil exports.
Donald Trump said negotiations to reopen the strait are making progress, even as Iranian lawmakers debate new restrictions on "hostile" vessels. The talks are part of the broader 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, which has strained relations between Iran, the United States, and Oman. Iranian officials, however, said discussions with Oman have not yet produced a final reopening agreement.
Prediction markets currently price a 45% chance of a US-Iran Hormuz agreement by August 15, reflecting modest optimism. Market participants are also watching for statements from OPEC's Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, whose remarks could shift sentiment further.
Stocks and the dollar held steady Tuesday as investors awaited the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly employment report, adding to the cautious mood around geopolitical risk. A formal U.S.-Iran statement on the strait could move that pricing further, and the next few days are seen as critical as the August 15 deadline approaches.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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