The Pentagon has drawn up options for a roughly three-day campaign against Iran's missiles, energy sites and Revolutionary Guard command posts, but Donald Trump has rejected five strike proposals and says he will not attack before the US midterm elections. A third carrier group is due in the region by late October as nuclear talks remain stuck on sequencing.
The US military has prepared options for a short, intense campaign of roughly three days against Iran, but Trump has repeatedly declined to restart full-scale war, the New York Times reported, citing American officials and people briefed on the plans. Commanders are ready to begin larger operations within days should the president change course, according to the report.
Plans drawn up by the Pentagon would focus on Iran's missile and drone arsenal, much of which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has rebuilt since the early phase of the war; other potential targets include energy facilities and Revolutionary Guard command posts. Senior national security officials led by Vice President JD Vance discussed the options at Camp David last Friday.
Trump holds off until after the elections
The Times said Trump has vetoed five proposals for major operations against Iran or the Houthis in recent months. On Thursday he posted that Washington and Tehran were holding productive discussions and that he would not attack before the midterm elections. Officials had already expected him to wait until after Israel's elections on October 27 and the US vote the following week before deciding.
Talks through mediators continue but remain stuck on sequencing, with Washington seeking a nuclear deal first and Iran insisting it come last. Some officials in Trump's inner circle believe economic pressure is working and needs more time.
Shipping attacks keep oil risk elevated
Iran has struck at least 13 ships since September, according to a British Navy monitoring group. Intelligence reports cited by the Times put the figure closer to 20. The US military response has been notably muted even as Iran forces the US and its partners to use more interceptors against missile salvos and draws on Chinese satellite imagery to target US bases more effectively.
For oil, the risk premium hinges on one man's decision rather than on military readiness. Iranian energy facilities on the target list put supply directly in scope, keeping shipping risk through the Strait of Hormuz the more immediate driver for crude than the strike plans themselves.
Third carrier strengthens US presence
A buildup is under way regardless of the diplomatic track. The Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group will join the George H.W. Bush and George Washington groups as early as the end of October, the first time since 2003 that three carriers have operated in the Middle East, with more than 20,000 sailors and Marines afloat. It remains far from certain Trump will authorize new strikes after the elections.
Source: investingLive
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