Iran's Fars News says a draft framework agreement with Oman would bar U.S., Israeli and other hostile vessels from the Strait of Hormuz until compensation is paid, while Tehran separately confirmed the deal won't fully reopen the waterway. Brent crude gained 5.3% to settle at $83.69 a barrel as traders weighed the partial agreement against unresolved security and fee disputes.
Iran-Oman framework sets fines and shifting corridors
Iran's Fars News reported Thursday that a draft agreement between Tehran and Oman would bar U.S., Israeli and other hostile vessels from the Strait of Hormuz until compensation is paid, citing parliament member Alireza Salimi. Ships that break Iran's protocols would face fines of up to 20% of their cargo's value, the outlet said.
Next, vessels would enter the strait through a northern corridor near the Iranian coast and exit through a southern corridor near Oman under the plan, citing an informed source in the foreign ministry. After a specified deadline in the plan, both corridors would close and traffic would shift to a middle corridor that Iran manages at entry and jointly manages with Oman at exit.
Separately, President Trump said earlier this week he had called off a planned attack against Iran because of progress toward a deal, though he added that Washington remained prepared to act if no agreement is reached. Asked whether a Hormuz deal had been reached, he told reporters: "I'm involved in the negotiations, I think we're doing fine. It could be soon."
Brent settles up 5.3% while risk stays asymmetric
Crude oil prices rose Thursday against that backdrop, with Brent crude futures gaining 5.3% to settle at $83.69 a barrel, though the benchmark remained down for the week. WTI opened the session down 0.7% at $74.69 before reversing to $76.13, up 1.21% intraday. Last month, Iran's restriction of tanker traffic through the strait briefly pushed crude to around $100 a barrel.
However, analysts framed the risk asymmetrically, noting the market has already priced in much of the geopolitical risk premium tied to the strait. As a result, a signed interim deal carries an estimated $4 to $6 of downside, while a collapse in talks carries $10 or more of upside for crude.
Iran says the deal stops short of a full reopening
Yet Iran confirmed that the agreement with Oman won't lead to a full reopening of the strait, and reportedly leaves unresolved issues over security and fees, meaning normal transit isn't yet feasible. Prediction markets moved on the news: odds that a full U.S.-Iran agreement would restore strait access by August 15 fell from 64% to 41.5% over 24 hours, while a broader agreement by August 31 was priced at 59%.
The gap between a shipping-route arrangement and a genuine reopening of Hormuz is exactly what oil traders are now pricing.
Sources: Economy News, Commodities Analysis & Opinion, Crypto Briefing
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
