Gold has retraced sharply in 2026, but Barron's technical analyst Doug Busch argues the longer-term uptrend remains intact. The metal was trading around $3,994 on Thursday, and Busch sees a path toward $4,500 by the end of the third quarter.
Gold's slide this year looks like a healthy reset rather than the end of its bull market, according to Barron's technical analyst Doug Busch. The metal was trading around $3,994 on Thursday, well off the highs it set at the start of the year.
The pullback followed a blistering 2025, and Busch attributes it to profit-taking after exceptional gains alongside a broader rotation into equities and other growth assets. A more resilient U.S. economy, stubbornly elevated interest-rate expectations, and a stronger dollar have all weighed on gold this year. The move suggests markets are pricing in fewer immediate recessionary or geopolitical shocks severe enough to drive a flight to safety, alongside confidence that the Federal Reserve can manage inflation without aggressive rate cuts this year.
Why the charts still favor gold
Busch points to several technical signals that argue the downtrend is fading. The selloff began after gold reached the $5,600 area on Jan. 29, where it formed a spinning-top candlestick often associated with buyer exhaustion. Momentum weakened further after the metal broke below its 21-day exponential moving average on March 13.
Yet the $4,000 level may be forming a double bottom over the past several weeks, and a bullish RSI divergence — with the indicator making a higher low in June and July even as price posted a lower low — suggests downside momentum is easing. He also flags a recent bearish death cross, where the 50-day simple moving average crossed below the 200-day. Such a death cross is often a lagging signal that appears after much of the technical damage is done.
The bigger picture
On the monthly chart, Busch says gold's secular uptrend remains firmly intact. The metal has declined 30% from its January high of $5,626.80, with June seeing another 11% drop. Both March and June rank among gold's weakest monthly performances of the past decade. Even so, volume remained relatively subdued through the correction, which Busch reads as a lack of widespread institutional selling.
Following a 65% gain in 2025, he frames the retreat as a reset rather than a trend change. Gold could advance toward $4,500 by the end of the third quarter, representing 11% upside from current levels, and he stays bullish above $3,850.
Source: Barron's
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