Gold and silver remain in a correction that started with the January 29 spike and reversal, and both metals are now testing critical support levels. A stalled bond-market "Goldilocks" trade and a firmer dollar keep the pressure on, even as the technical setup favors at least a bounce.
Gold Tests a Falling Wedge
Gold's daily chart shows a falling wedge testing support at the June-August lows, a level that lines up with a 62% Fibonacci retracement of the sharpest legs of the 2025 bull move – a setup that favors at least a bounce. The weekly chart tells a longer story: gold has retraced 38% from the 2022 lows that started the broader bull run, which is as much downside as a continuing bull cycle should need. If the move turns into a cyclical bear inside that secular bull, the 62% retracement sits at 3137, below a support cluster between 3260 and 3400. There is no visible technical support at the 50% retracement near 3607.
Silver Grinds Toward a Higher Low
Silver's daily chart skips the same Fibonacci grid, because the slide from the January high tore through the 62% retracement and prices kept grinding lower through 2026 to a July low of 54.77. Silver now sits at a support area that would be key to building a higher low above that level. On the weekly chart, it is testing support at roughly a 62% retracement from the 2022 lows. Neither metal has produced an oversold washout yet – a feature of the bull market rather than a bear market, or a washout that could still be ahead.
Yields and the Dollar Keep Pressure On
The pullback also reflects a tug-of-war the analysis sees playing out between two policymakers: Warsh, described as holding a hawkish stance on the short end, and Bessent, working to suppress long-end yields, in what the analysis frames as an attempt to engineer a flatter yield curve. That effort has not worked well so far: yields eased only after a strong 10-year Treasury note auction, while a bear-steepening move, with nominal yields still rising, remains in effect. If the curve breaks above its two prior highs, gold's correction would likely end; a return to flattening, instead, could leave precious metals lagging a broader risk-on rally. Rising real yields and a hawkish Fed funds-rate stance have also supported the dollar, even as the analysis argues inflation isn't the problem the headlines suggest it is.
Weak Fundamentals, but a Possible Near-Term Shift
Technically, gold and silver are doing the corrective work needed to refresh for the next leg of the bull market, even as both test critical support. But the analysis argues the fundamentals, taken at face value, remain weak right now, and it expects the short-term political noise around the midterm elections to shift the current anti-gold mood within weeks.
Source: Investing.com (Commodities Analysis & Opinion)
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