Brent crude jumped to $103.63 a barrel on Thursday, up 3.42% on the day, after Trump said he does not want an Iran deal and reports emerged of possible renewed strikes. West Texas Intermediate rose a smaller 2.93% to $90.87, widening the Brent-WTI spread to $12.76 as the market prices the cost of keeping tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
The December contract traded at $103.63 a barrel at 12:18 p.m. ET on Thursday, up $3.43, or 3.42%, from Wednesday's $100.20 settlement. West Texas Intermediate rose a smaller $2.59, or 2.93%, to $90.87. Both benchmarks ran further still earlier in the session, with Brent touching $105.91 and WTI hitting $93.20 before giving back more than $2 each.
Spread widens to $12.76 as Hormuz carries the risk
The gap between the two benchmarks reflects where the danger actually sits: in seaborne crude oil that must transit the Gulf, far more than in landlocked US supply. That spread widened to $12.76 from $11.92 at Wednesday's settlement, even though WTI matched Brent's percentage gain at the session highs. If the hurricane were the main driver, the spread would be narrowing rather than widening, since WTI would be leading the move instead of lagging it.
Nine tankers came under attack near Hormuz this week, the highest weekly count of the war, as Gulf producers raised exports and put more vessels in harm's way. Some 9.5 million barrels a day moved through the strait in the week ended Tuesday, 30% below the prewar baseline. Total Middle East crude flows, including pipeline routes that bypass Hormuz, stood at 16.4 million barrels a day, nearly matching prewar levels, but those pipelines are running near capacity and cannot absorb further losses.
Markets have learned to fade the rally
The rally that followed Trump's comments faded by midday, and that pattern has repeated through the year. Earlier in 2026, when Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, oil futures fell 10% to 11% in a single session. In June, WTI dropped below $80 for the first time in nearly four months on hopes of a framework deal.
Thursday's rally faded for the same reason. According to Investing.com, Trump said he does not want a deal, but added that Iran is "willing to offer us anything to stop." Positioning for war on the basis of a rally speech, with an envoy still negotiating, has been a losing trade more than once this year.
Inventories draw as the Strategic Reserve hits a 44-year low
US commercial crude inventories fell 3.186 million barrels to 424.1 million in the week ended October 2, against forecasts for a build. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve now sits at 283.8 million barrels, its lowest level since October 1982. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, cut its November official selling price to Asia to a six-year low, even as futures price in the risk that Hormuz supply gets cut off.
Source: Investing.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
