Gibraltar has enacted the first purpose-built regulatory framework for prediction markets anywhere, pulling the sector out of its general gambling law. The move splits the British Overseas Territory from mainland Europe, where regulators are moving to restrict the same platforms.
Gibraltar's Prediction Market Regulations 2026 came into force on July 13, exempting prediction-market operators from certain provisions of the territory's Gambling Act 2025 and placing them under a tailored set of rules. Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar's Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, called it a bespoke regime, the first dedicated framework of its kind anywhere in the world.
How the framework works
The 24-page instrument takes what the government describes as an activity-based and risk-based approach. Every event contract must be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority, and each must be clear, capable of objective settlement, and not readily susceptible to manipulation. An independent supervisory panel will oversee the framework, and operators must run their own systems to prevent market abuse.
Two products already sit under the regime. ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction-market partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026, was licensed in Gibraltar as a betting intermediary on March 26 under the territory's previous 2005 gambling law. The second, Wire Markets from California-based WagerWire, was approved in principle in June and is targeting a launch around the start of the international club football season in August.
A widening gap with Europe
The framework widens the distance between Gibraltar and the rest of the continent. Earlier this month, the EU's markets watchdog ESMA reminded firms that event contracts meeting the definition of financial instruments are already barred from retail sale under existing binary-options rules. In June, nine national regulators issued a joint statement warning operators over consumer-protection risks, and the Netherlands had already ordered Polymarket to stop serving its market.
Gibraltar already derives roughly a quarter of its GDP from gambling-associated services, and with the United Kingdom raising its Remote Gaming Duty to 40%, a new vertical helps offset that pressure. Regulated prediction-market trading volume keeps climbing, with combined monthly volume across the leading platforms reaching $44.8 billion in June.
Source: Bitcoin.com News
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