EUR/USD has stopped falling after sliding from April through June, with buyers unable to push above 1.1469. FOREX.com strategist James Stanley reads the pause as a break in the downtrend rather than a reversal, pointing to gold, Bitcoin and GBP/USD for the contrast.
The euro's slide against the dollar has stalled, and the question now is whether sellers are resting or retreating. FOREX.com strategist James Stanley argues the pause looks more like a break than an impending reversal, citing rallies in gold and Bitcoin alongside a stronger GBP/USD as the relative backdrop.
Where the pair sits now
EUR/USD bears took over in May and early June after the pair showed strength earlier in 2026, when buyers set a fresh four-year high. That advance unwound as the Iran conflict fed fears over European energy, and the euro was hit hard in March to test below the 1.1500 level.
An April bounce faded through May and June. But so far in July the move has stalled, with price sitting around the 1.1400 handle as buyers struggle to make ground above 1.1469.
Reading the pause
Stanley notes that sellers have kept holding resistance around 1.1450, yet they have swung less weight over the past few weeks, building higher-lows into the daily chart. He describes an oversold market that is hard to push for trend-side continuation, a read that ties to the glossary sense of an oversold condition.
Because of that, he flags the possibility of a short-term bullish breakout that could open the door to bigger-picture trend continuation if sellers try to defend follow-through resistance — in effect a short squeeze. According to FOREX.com: "The 1.1500 area is an ideal spot to look for that to play" above current highs, with a prior support zone spanning from 1.1576 up to 1.1613 of further interest above that.
What comes next
Until bulls show greater demand, Stanley says the forces of trend should be considered bearish, with the lower-lows and lower-highs on the charts still framing the case. He suggests waiting for a break above the roughly 1.1450 lower-highs and a stretch toward deeper resistance before treating a higher-low as a reversal signal.
For now the strategist is treating rallies in EUR/USD as short-term counter-trend setups.
Source: FOREX.com
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