Bitcoin has climbed roughly 22% over the past month, but Nansen analyst Nicolai Søndergaard says spot flows have not confirmed a new bull market. Exchange inflows, ETF withdrawals, and a split between long-term whales and short-heavy derivatives traders leave the rally's durability in question, while Bitcoin needs to hold $77,400–$77,650 before another run at $80,000.
Spot flows haven't caught up with the recovery
Bitcoin's market structure has improved after a 22% monthly recovery, but several flow indicators have kept Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard from calling a confirmed bull phase. Positive daily and weekly trends suggest Bitcoin has moved past the weakest part of its prior decline, yet BTC still trades below its seven-day average while short-term momentum stays weak.
According to crypto.news: "The recovery is real, but spot flows haven't confirmed the bull market yet." Labelled entities tracked by Nansen sent a net 3,700 BTC to exchanges over the past week, and because exchange deposits can precede sales, though transfers to trading platforms do not always lead to immediate selling, Søndergaard counted the increase among the factors limiting his confidence.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded around $236 million in withdrawals in the latest reading Søndergaard cited. That reversal followed stronger institutional activity in August, when ETF demand helped push Bitcoin from below $65,000 to above $80,000.
Whale positions split between spot and derivatives
Large Bitcoin traders have not settled on one direction during the recovery. Whales tracked across Nansen's monitored addresses remain slightly net long, while accounts trading large notional amounts on Hyperliquid hold heavy short exposure.
Funding rates stay positive but moderate, meaning long perpetual-futures traders are paying shorts without reaching levels tied to an overcrowded trade. At the same time, declining open interest shows total derivatives exposure has contracted, while taker-flow data point to continued selling.
Søndergaard said the combination creates conditions for a short-covering bounce, since lower-timeframe momentum has already turned oversold. Such a move would not automatically confirm a breakout, though, because leverage-driven buying can fade once short positions close. Long traders also face risk if Bitcoin loses $76,400, a level the analyst flagged as an important downside marker.
$80,000 test needs stronger ETF demand
For the recovery to become more durable, Bitcoin must first reclaim and hold the $77,400–$77,650 range, Søndergaard said. A successful move through that area would put the $80,000 level back in focus after several failed attempts to hold above it. Stronger spot volume and improving ETF flows would supply the confirmation he is watching for, alongside funding that stays moderate as open interest expands gradually.
Strategy has taken a more aggressive stance despite the unresolved signals. The company purchased 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30, ending a pause of more than two months, and paid an average of $80,318 per coin including fees, according to an Aug. 31 SEC filing.
Macroeconomic conditions add another constraint. The US 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.80% as rising oil prices and inflation concerns pushed bond yields higher, and Federal Reserve policy expectations have shifted toward another rate hike after Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address. ADP reported that US private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, below forecasts and down from a revised 46,000 in July, ahead of the official August employment report due Sept. 4.
Source: crypto.news
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