Bitcoin fell about 2% to $63,780 on Aug. 11 before recovering above $64,000, as rising oil prices and a stalled US-Iran negotiation pushed traders toward caution ahead of the US inflation report due Aug. 12. The $63,900 level has become the market's key pivot, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs also swinging to net outflows.
Bitcoin tests $63,900 as oil rally spooks traders
Bitcoin fell to $63,780 on Aug. 11 before recovering to trade near $64,000. The drop came after negotiations between the United States and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz broke down further, with President Trump responding to Iran's conditions with additional demands on Monday, according to Reuters.
The impasse pushed Brent crude above $89 a barrel, reviving inflation concerns tied to higher transportation and production costs. That pressure weighed on risk assets as traders positioned ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' July CPI report, due Aug. 12 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
ETF outflows and rate-hike bets add pressure
Institutional demand also softened. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $144.6 million in net outflows on Aug. 10, ending five straight sessions of inflows.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows traders now pricing a 51.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, up from 44.1% on Friday. Higher rate-hike odds tend to reduce demand for speculative assets, adding another headwind for Bitcoin.
CPI print could decide the next move
The $63,900 to $64,000 zone is the market's short-term pivot: a cooler CPI reading could help Bitcoin recover $65,000, while a hotter print would shift focus toward $63,200 and $62,000. Liquidation clusters near $63,700 and $65,600 sit on either side of the current price, leaving Bitcoin exposed to a sharp move once the data lands.
Beyond the day's chart, the stakes are larger. Bitcoin has fallen about 20.7% over the past three months even as the S&P 500 gained roughly 5% over the same stretch, a divergence that has left the asset down about 46% from its peak near $119,000 over the past year.
Sources: crypto.news, CoinJournal, Crypto Briefing
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