4 min read Gold is higher on the day and pressing back towards the 4,400 handle, but the move is arriving alongside a rally in equities and crypto rather than instead of one. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said overnight it had attacked two US vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf, yet equities are up, Bitcoin (BTC) is firmer and the US dollar is trading lower. That makes this look less like a safe-haven bid and more like a dollar story, which matters for how far it can run.
Gold 4-hour analysis
XAU/USD 4-hour. Price is contained within a descending channel below the 4,420 to 4,450 resistance zone, with RSI trending within its own channel against the 50 level.
Since our previous coverage of gold, price has continued lower and is now trading within a local downtrend inside a descending channel, with an important resistance zone above current price between 4,420 and 4,450.
The RSI is showing the same structure. Momentum is trending within its own descending channel, and the upper bound of that channel now converges with the 50 level, which puts both hurdles in the same place.
If price can break above the 4,420 to 4,450 zone while the RSI breaks its channel and reclaims 50, that combination could potentially open a move towards the higher timeframe resistance zone at around 4,565.
Gold 1-hour analysis
XAU/USD 1-hour. Price has reacted from the 0.618 to 0.786 reload zone and is testing 4,400, with the descending channel still intact overhead.
Price has bounced from within the long reload zone of the latest up move, the area between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels, and is now approaching the 4,400 level marked with the horizontal line.
- A break and retest of 4,400 could potentially carry price into the higher timeframe resistance zone and break the descending channel. That would be the real test of this move.
- A failure to break out could potentially see another retrace back towards the channel lows at around 4,350
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