Ethereum is testing the line that has decided every bull and bear phase. These are the key levels to watch

Ethereum is testing a level that has marked the difference between its bull and bear phases for years. After months of grinding lower, ETH has slipped to near its weakest of the cycle and is now sitting on a major long-term support level, the kind of zone that has repeatedly separated recoveries from deeper declines. Whether it holds here or gives way could set the tone for the rest of the year.

The pressure is mostly coming from outside crypto. Inflation is running hotter than the Fed would like, with the latest reading on its preferred gauge climbing to 4.1%, the highest in three years, and the core measure ticking up to 3.4%. Earlier this month the Fed, under chair Kevin Warsh, took a previously expected 2026 rate cut off the table and signalled a possible hike instead. A firmer dollar and higher bond yields have followed, and both tend to weigh on risk assets. As one of the higher-beta corners of the market, Ethereum has felt that more than most, falling faster than Bitcoin through the recent sell-off. Spot ETH ETFs have also seen sustained outflows, adding to the drag.

What makes the setup unusual is the gap between price and fundamentals. The network is arguably in its strongest shape yet, with the Glamsterdam upgrade, Ethereum’s biggest overhaul since The Merge, now targeted for the second half of the year, and institutional buyers still accumulating despite the weak tape. That tension, a deteriorating price against an improving network, is what makes the current support test worth watching.

The next catalyst is the US jobs report, brought forward to Thursday because of a US holiday. A strong print could revive bets on further rate hikes and add pressure, while a softer one could give risk assets some room to recover.

The weekly chart

On the weekly timeframe, Ethereum is sitting on a key support level that has been pivotal for years. The weekly RSI is low at around 30, but there is no bullish divergence yet, and the bounces off this area have come on relatively weak participation.

That makes the current level important. A failure to hold could open the door to the next major support around 25% lower, a zone that has not been tested since December 2022. A break of that kind could also risk triggering a liquidation cascade as price falls through key support.

The daily chart

The daily timeframe offers a more constructive short-term picture. There is a clear bullish divergence between price and RSI, with RSI printing higher lows while price holds roughly equal lows.

A potential double bottom, or W structure, is forming, with its neckline at 1,800. If Ethereum can bounce from here and reclaim 1,800, that would point to a significant bullish bottoming formation. A failure to hold support, however, and further downside could follow.

In between, a range could develop between the 1,550 support area and the 1,800 resistance above.

Key levels to watch

• Weekly support: the level Ethereum is testing now, just above the 1,550 daily support. A clean break opens a potential move around 25% lower, towards a zone last visited in December 2022.
• Daily support: 1,550
• Daily resistance and double-bottom neckline: 1,800
• Potential range: 1,550 to 1,800

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