World zinc and lead mine output fell together in the first half of 2026, cutting into the biggest single source of byproduct silver just as the metal heads into a sixth straight year of structural deficit. The dent in supply looks small in ounce terms, but it shows why a higher silver price alone cannot easily pull more of the metal out of the ground.
Silver closed August at $66.56 an ounce, up roughly 16% on the month. It then slipped to $63.96 on September 1 as expectations firmed for a rate increase this month. Peru's Antamina mine, meanwhile, cut zinc output 62% last quarter — not because the ore ran out, but because the mine plan shifted toward copper, and the silver riding along with that ore left with it.
Most silver is a byproduct, not the target
Only 26.1% of the world's mined silver comes from mines built to produce silver. The rest arrives as a credit alongside other metals, with lead and zinc operations the largest single source at 249.1 million ounces, per the World Silver Survey 2026 data compiled by Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. That is why a higher price does little to summon more silver from the ground: most of it depends on decisions made by miners who are not budgeting around its price at all.
Zinc and lead mine output turns lower together
On August 26, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported world zinc mine production fell 2.6% and lead mine production fell 3.0% in the first half of 2026. That reverses course: the same series had shown 1.1% growth through May. EBC attributes the biggest zinc reductions to Antamina in Peru, Garpenberg in Sweden and Red Dog in the United States, with Australia's Lady Loretta mine closing at the end of 2025 removing further tonnage. Spot treatment charges for imported zinc concentrate in China fell to a record low near minus $117.50 a dry tonne in August on Shanghai Metals Market's index, against an $85 annual benchmark — a negative charge that means smelters are paying miners to process ore, with margins then depending on byproducts including silver.
A small dent in a persistent deficit
Applying the zinc and lead declines to last year's silver base points to roughly 7 million ounces of annualized supply at the midpoint, equal to 0.83% of the 844.1 million ounces of mine supply forecast for 2026 — a scenario rather than a measurement, since the study group tracks zinc and lead tonnage, not silver. The market is running into a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, forecast at 46.3 million ounces for 2026. Yet Western inventories have not tightened: COMEX registered stock rose over the past month, and London vaults built for a third straight month to 28,213 tonnes at the end of July.
Source: Investing.com
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