Xi Jinping is set to arrive in Washington on September 23 for a summit with Donald Trump the next day, but Beijing has not formally confirmed the trip and has warned it would cancel the meeting if Washington approves a pending $14 billion Taiwan arms sale beforehand. The visit would be Xi's first to the White House in more than a decade, and its fate now rests on a single unresolved decision Trump has yet to make.
Xi is scheduled to land in Washington on September 23, hold talks with Trump on September 24, and depart the following day. It would mark his first visit to the White House in more than a decade, with a formal state dinner planned. Yet the trip is not locked in.
Beijing withholds formal confirmation
The White House has confirmed the September 24 date, and Trump has spoken confidently about the meeting in recent days, calling it very exciting. Beijing, however, has not made an equivalent public announcement of Xi's travel plans, a gap that has persisted for weeks even as preparations continue on both sides.
The visit follows Trump's own trip to Beijing in May. The central risk to this second summit is Taiwan.
Taiwan arms package is the flashpoint
Citing diplomatic sources, Japan's Kyodo News reported around September 13 that China has warned it would cancel the meeting if Washington approves new arms sales to Taiwan before the two leaders sit down. Beijing regards Taiwan as the foremost red line in the relationship, a position Xi underscored during the May summit when he told Trump that mishandling the issue could trigger clashes and conflict.
The specific flashpoint is a roughly $14 billion arms package that Congress has already approved but which still requires Trump's final sign-off, a decision he has so far left pending.
Expectations are already low
Even setting the Taiwan question aside, expectations for what the summit could achieve are being managed downward. Analysts including Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies have described it as a low expectations summit focused on managing an ongoing stalemate rather than resolving it. They point to unfulfilled commitments from the May meeting, including a Chinese pledge to purchase Boeing aircraft and American agricultural goods, as evidence the relationship is producing transactions without much underlying trust.
Friction at this month's G20 finance ministers meeting, where China was the lone dissenter on a joint statement and separately objected to language on the Iran war, has added to the strained backdrop heading into the visit.
For now, the summit remains officially on the calendar, and most market commentary still treats it as more likely than not to proceed, since neither side has an obvious interest in being the party that cancels first. But the outcome hinges on a decision Trump has not yet made: approval of the Taiwan arms package before September 24 would, by Beijing's own stated position, be enough to scrap the meeting entirely.
Source: InvestingLive
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