WTI crude is holding near a one-month high, trading around $78.70 and up roughly 10% on the week as US strikes on Iran keep supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz in focus. A weekly inventory draw came in smaller than expected.
A fresh round of US strikes against Iran has kept a geopolitical risk premium wedged into crude prices, and West Texas Intermediate is riding it. WTI trades around $78.70, up roughly 10% so far this week, consolidating modest losses on Wednesday but staying close to a one-month high.
Hormuz tensions anchor the risk premium
The US Central Command said the latest strikes were aimed at weakening Iran's ability to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran continues to insist the Strait falls under its sovereignty and that vessels must coordinate with Iranian authorities and follow routes it designates.
Against that backdrop, ongoing supply disruptions keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices.
Inventory draw undershoots expectations
The US Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories fell by 1.693 million barrels last week, short of the expected 2.6 million-barrel decline. That draw reversed the prior week's 2.998 million-barrel build, which had been the first inventory increase in eleven weeks.
Technicals lean cautiously constructive
WTI holds above its 200-day Simple Moving Average at $73.67, hinting at a tentative constructive bias, but it stays capped below the 50-day SMA at $83.80 and the 100-day SMA at $87.33. The Relative Strength Index near 54 leans mildly bullish while the MACD sits positive, suggesting improving momentum without a decisive break.
Initial resistance sits at the horizontal barrier near $80, ahead of those longer moving averages where a stronger bullish push would likely meet more supply. On the downside, support clusters around the 200-day line at $73.67, with a deeper turn exposing the prior base near $67.00.
Source: FXStreet
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