10x Research founder Markus Thielen says Wall Street traders and profit-taking whales have ended Bitcoin's run of consecutive double-digit surges. He still sees Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by year-end, questions how much of the ETF demand was outright buying, and says Ethereum must do more for holders.
10x Research founder Markus Thielen says Bitcoin's days of consecutive double-digit price surges are over as Wall Street traders and profit-taking whales reshape the market. Institutional traders who sell call options after rallies have made the violent price explosions of earlier years less common, he says on Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets.
Thielen expects Bitcoin to rise quickly on news, then crab walk across the chart before the next big macro event. This cycle's promoters come from Wall Street, where investors trade on economic data and Federal Reserve decisions.
Market makers behind much of the ETF inflows
Thielen estimates that market makers account for up to half of the $60 billion in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs that he analyzed. Those firms hold ETF shares to hedge their options trades, so the positions do not necessarily represent a bet on a higher price.
According to Thielen: "So in the end it was not outright buying," drawing on a review of Form 13F filings. He adds that the first wave of funds also included retail investors buying through institutions and corporate vehicles, and some paid substantial premiums to the value of the underlying crypto holdings.
Bitcoin could still reach $90,000 by year-end
Thielen still sees Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by year-end, though he says a drop into the mid-to-high $70,000s could come first. Bitcoin has already traded in that range, falling to about $76,100 on Friday after Binance's $6.3 billion hack, and it finished October down 7.3%, according to Coinglass.
The path to $90,000 may rest partly on how much further the Fed raises borrowing rates. The central bank increased its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point in September, to a target range of 3.75%-4%. It then held rates steady last Wednesday in a split vote, with two officials voting for another quarter-point increase.
Thielen expects another hike by December, followed by a more cautious approach to further increases that could help Bitcoin rally toward year-end.
Ethereum needs to show holders the money
Thielen expects Bitcoin to outperform Ether, saying too much of the value from Ethereum activity goes to layer-2 networks. He says he has been bearish on Ether for more than a year.
He points to Hyperliquid as an example of how trading activity can fund token purchases: the exchange's assistance fund converts trading fees into HYPE, which is then burned. For Ethereum, Thielen wants a stronger connection between the network's use and the financial benefit to holders.
Source: Cointelegraph
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