US Vice President JD Vance says the Iran conflict will shift into "a completely different phase" within months and could wind down after the November midterms. But his claim that Hormuz shipping has recovered to more than half of normal levels runs well ahead of independent tracking data.
Vance told the New York Post the conflict would enter "a completely different phase" within months, aligning himself with President Trump's view that the war could wind down after the November midterm elections. He said the outcome hinges on whether Trump chooses to escalate after the vote, or whether Iran becomes more willing to negotiate a settlement.
A two-phase framework
Vance described the conflict as unfolding in two phases: the first destroying Iran's nuclear program and degrading its conventional military and regional power, the second aimed at stopping Iran from rebuilding those capabilities while maintaining regional stability. He added that the US is not currently conducting offensive operations against Iran, framing current activity as a response to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping.
Hormuz claim outpaces independent tracking
Vance also said shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to more than half of its normal level, arguing that Iran's grip on the waterway is loosening. Independent shipping trackers and US Central Command data have instead put daily transits at 10% to 25% of pre-war volumes, far below the roughly 130 vessels a day that used the strait before the war began in February. That gap leaves his account of the pace of recovery unverified.
Toll on oil markets persists
The broader economic and shipping toll of the conflict continues to be felt across Asian and Gulf oil markets, with elevated freight costs and disrupted supply routes still weighing on trade through the region months after the fighting began. Until Vance's Hormuz figures are corroborated by independent trackers, that risk premium looks unlikely to ease.
Source: Investinglive
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