A missile attack on Riyadh has drawn a US warning that the Saudi-Houthi conflict could escalate rapidly, prompting President Trump to cut short his stay at Camp David. Prediction markets are pricing a rising chance of a wider war involving Iran, as world leaders gather in New York for the UN General Assembly to address the widening Middle East crisis.
The United States has warned that the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen could escalate rapidly after a missile attack targeted Riyadh, the first such strike since hostilities resumed in the Yemen conflict. Trump cut short his stay at Camp David, returning to the White House unexpectedly on Saturday.
Markets price rising odds of a wider Iran conflict
Prediction markets now put the probability of a US invasion of Iran by the end of 2026 at 16.5% YES, up slightly from 16% before the Riyadh strike. The increase suggests market participants are growing wary of escalating military engagement with Iran, according to the report.
Diplomacy stalls as leaders gather in New York
The strike lands as nearly 130 heads of state gather in New York for the UN General Assembly, where Trump is due back at the rostrum for a second year running. Peace talks remain stalled, however, as Iran and the US continue to exchange strikes and Trump threatens a major escalation of the war.
Houthi gains have also raised concern over shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which could further spike energy prices. According to Reuters, Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group said the UN remains "trapped in a trauma center for the foreseeable future."
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled to address the assembly Wednesday, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks Thursday.
A US-Iran meeting looks unlikely for now
Despite the diplomatic push, prediction markets give only a 0.1% chance of a US-Iran meeting in the UAE by September 30.
Iran and the US continue to exchange strikes, and peace talks remain stalled.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, All News, Crypto Briefing
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