US energy firms likely added a near-normal 43 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage last week, according to a Reuters poll. Traders held back ahead of the government print, which polls suggest could read modestly bullish against historical norms, while ING flagged a tighter storage picture in Europe.
Natural gas futures traded lightly early Thursday as market participants waited on the latest government inventory data, with polls pointing to a build that could look modestly bullish relative to historical norms, according to Natural Gas Intelligence. The report stands as the market’s potential next catalyst.
What the storage poll shows
US energy firms likely added a near-normal 43 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage last week, based on the average estimate in a Reuters poll released on Wednesday. That estimate compares with an injection of 47 bcf during the same week a year earlier.
NGI’s own model sits slightly higher, seeing a 44 Bcf injection for the week. Storage entered July plump, and polls point to a build in the 40s Bcf range for the week.
Europe’s tighter picture
Across the Atlantic, the storage challenge looks harder. ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said investment funds boosted their net long in TTF natural gas by 26.7 TWh over the last reporting week to 181.9 TWh. The analysts said the move was dominated by fresh longs entering the market.
EU gas storage is just 53% full versus a five-year average of 68%, some distance from the bloc’s target ahead of the heating season. The analysts flagged the LNG and European gas markets as vulnerable amid the flare-up in hostilities between the US and Iran. They also see Europe and Asia bidding harder for the same supply, with ING writing: “There’s increased competition between Europe and Asia for spot LNG cargoes.”
Sources: Natural Gas Intelligence, Reuters via TradingView (snippet-based), FXStreet (ING)
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