Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and Black Sea tankers have pushed Russian crude processing to its lowest level since 2002. Moscow is now weighing an extension of its diesel export ban through the end of 2026 as it tries to keep fuel at home.
Russian crude processing has fallen to 3.6 million barrels per day, the lowest level since May 2002, as sustained Ukrainian drone campaigns knock refineries and tankers out of action. The current figure marks roughly a 35% decline from the pre-war rate of about 5.5 million barrels per day.
Refineries and tankers under fire
Strikes in July alone hit 18 refineries across Russia, and two of Lukoil's largest facilities have gone dark entirely: Volgograd halted operations on July 31, and Ryazan two days earlier on July 29. On July 15, a single overnight operation struck over 20 vessels — 17 oil tankers, two gas tankers, and one tugboat.
Ukraine has also targeted infrastructure tied to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which normally moves about a million barrels per day of crude oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Strikes on CPC-linked facilities have caused loading suspensions there.
Seaborne exports slide too
As a result, Russian seaborne crude shipments dropped to 3.46 million barrels per day in the four weeks leading up to August 23, the lowest level in four months. Moscow has responded with fuel export restrictions, signalling that the domestic supply picture is tight enough to warrant rationing what goes abroad.
Diesel ban may run through year-end
Russia is now preparing to extend its diesel export ban through at least September, with officials discussing pushing the restriction through the end of 2026. The ban, first imposed on July 8, was originally set to expire that month but has been extended multiple times since.
Diesel and gasoil loadings averaged roughly 234,000 barrels per day in early July 2026, down from 400,000 barrels per day in June and barely a quarter of the roughly 817,000 barrels per day Russia exported in 2025. Drone strikes on August 24-25 forced operational halts at the Novoshakhtinsk and Afipsky refineries, two plants that were supposed to help the domestic supply recovery. Motor gasoline exports are banned until January 31, 2027, and jet fuel shipments are restricted through the end of November 2026.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has floated the idea that the export ban could lift as early as September if domestic supply improves, though he has also raised concerns about refinery gluts if consumption can't keep pace with production once facilities are running again.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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