TD Cowen has cut its year-end Bitcoin price target to $97,500, down from a prior forecast of $141,277, even as the new figure implies 25% upside from current levels. Analyst Lance Vitanza attributes the reduction to recent price weakness and also lowered Strategy's price target while keeping a Buy rating.
TD Cowen now expects Bitcoin to end the year at $97,500, roughly 25% above the $78,000 level where the asset was recently trading. The bank had previously projected Bitcoin would reach $141,277 by the end of 2025, so the new call marks a sharp retreat from its earlier optimism.
A steep cut across every forecast
Analyst Lance Vitanza also lowered TD Cowen's 2026-to-2027 range, which had previously stood at $177,000 to $225,000. The bank's updated base case for year-end 2026 now sits at approximately $100,000, down from a prior estimate around $140,000. Vitanza's note attributes the revisions to recent price weakness rather than any structural deterioration, and it keeps regulatory clarity and broader index inclusion on the list of potential catalysts that could speed a recovery.
Bitcoin has traded in a range of $58,400 to $78,000, with monthly drawdowns exceeding 20% and a pullback of more than 50% from prior highs above $126,000. That volatility is the backdrop against which TD Cowen now frames its more modest year-end target.
Strategy target cut, Strive coverage initiated
TD Cowen also cut its price target on Strategy, the Michael Saylor-led firm, to $260 from $400, while keeping its Buy rating. The bank said the reduction tracks the Bitcoin forecast revision rather than any change in its view of Strategy's execution or capital structure, since Strategy's equity value moves in close correlation with the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
Separately, TD Cowen initiated coverage on Strive, projecting the firm will accumulate more than 27,100 BTC by the end of 2026. The bank set a $32 share price target on Strive, implying 33% upside.
A wide band of possible outcomes
Because Bitcoin's recent range spans $58,400 to $78,000, the implied upside to the $97,500 target varies sharply depending on the entry point. At the low end of that range, the target represents closer to 67% upside; at the high end, it's the 25% the headline describes.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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