SpaceX publishes its first quarterly results as a public company after Tuesday's close, giving investors their clearest look yet at how AI spending weighs against Starlink's profits. A lock-up expiry two days later could put hundreds of millions of shares up for sale, adding pressure to a stock that already trades well below its IPO price.
SpaceX reports its first quarterly results since its stock market debut after the close of trading on Tuesday. The report is expected to show whether SpaceX's financial performance supports the growth expectations that accompanied its listing, particularly around its heavy spending on artificial intelligence and space technology.
Shares Have Fallen Well Below the IPO Price
The company raised $85.7 billion when it went public in June 2026, the largest initial public offering in history. The stock debuted at an IPO price of $135 before climbing to almost $200. It then retreated to a 52-week low of $112.55, a decline of around 17% from the IPO price and more than 44% below its post-listing peak. It closed the first session of August at $114.53, up 5.68%, as the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.78% in a broader rally.
A Lock-Up Expiry Could Add Fresh Supply
Two days after the earnings release, early investors can begin selling shares acquired before the IPO, potentially adding billions of dollars' worth of stock to the market over the coming months. Investing.com's coverage, cited by Crypto Daily, put the first tranche at up to roughly 911.5 million shares, as much as 20% of the eligible pool, which could become saleable around Aug. 6, 2026 if the schedule holds. About 32% of SpaceX's float is currently shorted, so a strong beat could spark short covering similar to GameStop's 2021 squeeze, Crypto Briefing noted.
Starlink Funds the AI Build-Out
Starlink remains SpaceX's only consistently profitable business, and according to Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens, it currently generates the profits that partially finance the company's AI expansion. Morningstar expects Starlink subscribers to grow 93% during 2026, after growth of 229% in 2025. SpaceX's AI business generated $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025 and $818 million in Q1 2026, though it has yet to turn a profit.
Analysts Debate SpaceX's Valuation
The debate over SpaceX's valuation turns on two sharply different price targets. The average analyst target stands at $236.72 a share, according to FactSet data. That is well above Owens's fair-value estimate of just $63. According to Owens: "I don't expect the sector to become profitable in the short term."
SpaceX posted $18.7 billion in revenue during 2025 but a loss of nearly $5 billion. It followed that with a $4.3 billion loss on revenue of $4.7 billion in Q1 2026. The company also carries about $30 billion of debt.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Crypto Daily, Crypto Briefing
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