Fundstrat's Tom Lee says the S&P 500 could rally to 7,900-8,000 by the end of August if three events this week clear without a negative surprise: Wednesday's core PCE inflation print, Nvidia's second-quarter earnings, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Friday speech at Jackson Hole. Lee also points to Treasury bond buying, pro-crypto legislation and ether's market leadership as reasons he remains bullish.
Three events stand between here and 7,900
Fundstrat managing partner and research head Tom Lee says the S&P 500 can rally toward 7,900-8,000 once the market clears three "hurdles" this week: the core personal consumption expenditure price index for July due Wednesday, Nvidia's second-quarter earnings due after the close the same day, and a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday.
Lee expects each event to confirm a trend already in place rather than reverse one. He anticipates the PCE data will support his view that inflation pressures are cooling, and that Nvidia's results and outlook will reinforce conviction in the AI trade. He also thought the Fed sounded dovish at its August meeting, and expects Warsh to double down on that tone at Jackson Hole.
Upside target sits at 7,900 to 8,000
Once the trio of events passes without a jolt, Lee predicts the S&P 500 can reach 7,900-8,000 by the end of August, up from Tuesday's close of 7,677.
According to MarketWatch, Lee described current conditions as "impressive market resilience while oil and rates are near highs."
Bond buying and tokenization back the risk-on case
Lee points to the Treasury buying long-dated bonds as a risk-on signal, alongside Trump's endorsement of pro-crypto legislation, Wall Street tokenization and the broader AI trade. He also believes the "crypto winter" downturn has ended.
Lee, a longstanding crypto bull, argues ether's 54% run since the start of the third quarter has put it in market leadership, comparing the surge to breakouts in May 2025 and November 2021 that both preceded further gains in the months that followed. Among equity sectors, he favors the Mag Seven, industrials, energy, basic materials, financials and small caps.
Source: MarketWatch
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