Silver fell to $58.97 an ounce, its lowest level since early August, after Federal Reserve minutes showed most officials expect another rate hike this year. One analyst's weekly chart shows the metal breaking below its March lows, with a base case pointing toward a further drop near $45.
Silver (XAG/USD) fell 1.5% to $58.97 an ounce by 06:33 UTC Thursday, its lowest level since early August. The drop followed minutes of the Fed's September meeting, which showed that most officials expect another rate hike before year end. Silver had already closed Wednesday below $60, at $59.89, ahead of the minutes' release.
The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in September, and the minutes said policymakers may need to lift it a second time before year end. Higher rates and a firmer dollar raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest.
How Low Can Silver Go
On the weekly chart, silver closed last week near $60.40, under horizontal support at $61.15 set by the March lows. The same candle finished below the 50-week moving average, now at $63.62.
In a September 2 analysis, when silver traded at $63.63 and had just broken its 200-day EMA, the analyst wrote that a daily close below $61.15 would activate $55.42 and then $45.40. Daily candles have closed below that level since the end of September, and the weekly chart has now confirmed the break.
The analyst's base case is a move toward $45, where the October 2025 lows at $45.40 meet the 200-week EMA at $44.85 — a drop of about 23% from today's price. The first test comes sooner, at the summer lows of $55.42, about 6% below the current price.
What Is Capping Silver on the Daily Chart
A trend line drawn from the May high near $89.50 has turned back both the late-August and late-September rebounds. Just under that line, the 50-day EMA at $63.54 and the 200-day EMA at $64.94 have flattened into a resistance band roughly 8% to 10% above the current price. Silver has now lost the 200-day EMA twice, first in June and again in early September.
Why the Fed Is Weighing on Silver
XTB market analyst Mikołaj Sobierajski flagged a stronger dollar, high yields and the possibility of another Fed hike as three simultaneous pressures on the metal in a September 23 note. He said only a clear reversal of one of those factors would give silver room to rebound.
What Could Stop the Slide
Speculators held a net long of 22,083 contracts in CFTC data cited October 5 by XTB deputy head of research Michał Stajniak. That put positioning in the 38.5th percentile, a level Stajniak said signals a slightly oversold market and lowers the risk of a cascading sell-off. He added that a lasting trend change would require a volume-confirmed break above $63.00 and a return above the moving averages.
The Silver Institute expects 2026 to be the sixth straight year of market deficit, at about 67 million ounces. Gerald Celente, founder of the Trends Research Institute, told Kitco News on October 3 that he never expected gold and silver to fall as far as they have, and said he still sees silver as a long-term holding because of its use in electronics and solar energy.
For the bearish scenario, the level that matters is $61.15 — a weekly close back above it would put the breakdown in doubt, while only a daily close above the trend line and the EMA band near $65 would cancel it.
Source: Finance Magnates
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