The Senate is set to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15, but the House has canceled its final two weeks of September sessions, clouding the bill's path to law this year. Polymarket puts the odds of enactment in 2026 at 17%, down from a recent high above 20% in late August, as Democrats are favored to retake at least one chamber in the midterms. Circle's president is meanwhile pressing Congress to pass the bill to protect dollar dominance in digital finance.
Senate vote nears as House clears its calendar
The Senate is scheduled to hold an initial procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15, formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, a step toward defining federal oversight of digital commodities and securities. Yet U.S. House leadership has canceled sessions for the final two weeks of September and will break for the midterm-election recess by September 17.
Even if the Senate passes the bill, it must return to the House for a vote on the Senate's amendments before it can reach the president's desk. That vote is unlikely to happen until the House reconvenes in mid-November, after the midterms, and the bill could still slip into the year-end lame-duck session.
Odds of passage slide on Polymarket
Polymarket data shows only a 17% chance President Trump signs the CLARITY Act into law this year, down from a recent high above 20% in late August. The same market gives Democrats a 90% chance of retaking the House and a 52% chance of retaking the Senate, a shift that could reshape the bill's chances if lawmakers wait until after the elections.
Despite the slipping timeline, SEC Chair Paul Atkins has expressed optimism that the Senate will vote to advance the bill on September 15.
Circle presses Congress on "dollar statecraft"
Industry pressure is building too. Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, Circle President Heath Tarbert called the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act "dollar statecraft in its most practical form" and urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act on a bipartisan basis.
Tarbert also pressed regulators to implement the GENIUS Act's stablecoin rules as written. The CLARITY Act separately still faces key issues, including a stablecoin yield fight between banks and the crypto industry.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, CoinGape, CoinGape
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
