Senate Majority Leader John Thune left the CLARITY Act off this week's cloture filings, narrowing the crypto market structure bill's path before the August recess. Prediction markets have slashed the odds of 2026 passage, even as bitcoin holds above $64,000.
Thune filed cloture on the Protect College Sports Act, a continuing-resolution substitute, and Todd Blanche's attorney general nomination — but not on the CLARITY Act, leaving the bill without the procedural countdown needed for an initial vote. The omission doesn't kill the bill, but it shrinks the window to open debate before senators leave for recess.
Senate leaves crypto bill off cloture list
Cloture on a motion to proceed requires support from 60 senators, so Republicans cannot advance the bill without Democratic votes. Ethics restrictions on elected officials' crypto holdings, along with stablecoin rewards and protections for noncustodial developers, remain unresolved sticking points.
Prediction markets slash odds on passage
Kalshi traders now put the odds of enactment before July 1, 2027 at 41%, rising to 58% before Oct. 1, 2027, and 65% before Jan. 1, 2028 — a sign traders expect a longer legislative timeline than 2026. Sen. Elizabeth Warren has pushed for stronger conflict-of-interest rules, and Republicans need at least seven Democratic votes if all 53 GOP senators back cloture. Separately, Polymarket's contract on 2026 enactment fell to 16% by early August, down from an 82% peak in February. Bitcoin News put Wednesday's reading at 15%, down 12 percentage points from 27% on Monday.
Bitcoin holds $64,000 despite the swings
Bitcoin still traded just under $64,600 on Wednesday, a 1.1% daily gain that pushed its market capitalization close to $1.3 trillion, after swinging between $63,900 and $64,706 during the session. The move squeezed short sellers: Coinglass data showed $216 million in total crypto liquidations, with short positions accounting for $148 million of that figure.
What industry figures expect next
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan warned that missing the pre-recess window could leave the bill in a stalled but active state, facing a longer delay and steeper procedural hurdles later in 2026. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said "I'm still optimistic that the bill will get finished," and that the SEC could keep addressing crypto custody, fundraising and tokenized securities regardless of the bill's fate.
The bill's next signal will be a cloture filing, a bipartisan agreement, or a change to the Senate schedule.
Sources: crypto.news, Bitcoin News, Crypto Briefing
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