The Senate holds a cloture vote on the Clarity Act Tuesday at 2:15 p.m. ET, needing 60 votes to send the crypto market-structure bill to the floor. Sen. Cynthia Lummis says the revised text meets Democrats' demands and warns the bill is dead for 2026 if the vote fails, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren says the ethics provisions still don't address Trump's crypto wealth. Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 as prediction-market odds on passage swung lower.
The Senate votes on cloture for the Clarity Act at 2:15 p.m. ET Tuesday, needing 60 votes to advance H.R. 3633 to floor debate. Republicans need roughly seven Democrats to cross over given their 53-seat majority.
Lummis: "now or never"
Lummis, the Wyoming Republican leading the bill, argues the final text folds in more than 120 Democratic demands, including a new ethics framework covering the president, vice president, members of Congress and federal judges. According to Decrypt: "It's now or never for the Clarity Act," Lummis posted on X. She told reporters that if cloture fails she believes the effort is over, adding the bill has been in the works for over a year and already carries more than 120 of Democrats' requests.
The House passed its version of the bill in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote, and the Senate Banking Committee cleared it 15-9 in May 2026 with only two Democratic votes. To win more support, the White House agreed to bar federally elected officials, judges and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets, enforceable by state attorneys general with no expiration date.
Warren: ethics gaps remain
Not every Democrat is satisfied. Warren, the Banking Committee's top Democrat, told reporters the Clarity Act represents Washington's first chance for meaningful crypto regulation, but said any bill must also protect national security and consumers and strengthen illicit-finance safeguards. She plans to argue on the floor that the ethics language still leaves gaps and doesn't clearly cover the Trump family's World Liberty Financial venture.
On Tuesday, Democrats offered a counterproposal that would broaden ethics restrictions around Trump's crypto wealth, including his children, and require officials with a large stake in a crypto company to sell it rather than place it in a blind trust. Lummis rejected the counteroffer.
Bitcoin slips as odds swing
Prediction markets have moved with the news. Polymarket odds on the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 fell to 19% Tuesday from 35% a day earlier, after Democrats circulated their counterproposal. Traders currently see a 55% chance more than 50 senators vote yes today, but only a 32% chance the bill actually clears the 60-vote bar.
Bitcoin sits at $76,212, down 3.3% and roughly 7% off its September high.
If cloture fails, the bill is effectively dead for 2026, with midterm campaigning set to consume the legislative calendar soon after.
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