SEC Chair Paul Atkins says the Senate could advance the CLARITY Act within two weeks, pointing to a Sept. 15 cloture vote on the crypto market structure bill. The SEC is meanwhile building its own rules that could apply with or without the legislation, while prediction markets remain split on whether the bill becomes law in 2026.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins said he expects the Senate to move the CLARITY Act forward within the next two weeks, giving the delayed crypto market structure bill another chance to reach President Donald Trump's desk. The comments come ahead of a scheduled cloture vote on Sept. 15.
Cloture vote sets the immediate test
A motion involving H.R. 3633 will ripen at 2:15 p.m. ET on Sept. 15, according to the official Senate schedule. A cloture vote does not decide the bill itself; it determines whether senators end the procedural delay and move to floor debate, amendments, and eventual passage.
The motion needs 60 votes, requiring support from both parties in a closely divided chamber. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed before lawmakers left for the August recess, and failure to reach the threshold would prevent the chamber from moving directly to a final vote under the current schedule.
Atkins framed the SEC's own work as complementary to that effort. According to Atkins: "what we really do need though is statutory grounding", presenting congressional action as the more durable route for setting U.S. crypto rules.
Prediction markets stay divided on passage
Doubts persist despite Atkins' two-week estimate, as Congress approaches a period when midterm election preparations could crowd the Senate calendar. SALT CEO John Darsie said he remains skeptical the chamber will finish the measure this year, citing the political timetable.
Kalshi traders placed the probability of the legislation becoming law in 2026 at 49%, leaving that market almost evenly split. Polymarket traders gave passage an 82% chance in February, but the figure had dropped to about 16% by early August after the Senate adjourned without acting on the bill. Neither contract determines how senators will actually vote, and prices can shift as negotiations continue.
Earlier steps have already narrowed the runway. The House passed the legislation 294-134 in July 2025. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version 15-9 in May 2026, with two Democrats joining the committee's 13 Republicans. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats but cannot reach the cloture threshold alone, so party leaders would need more Democratic support than the two votes secured at the committee stage.
Bill would divide SEC and CFTC oversight
The CLARITY Act would set federal rules for deciding when a digital asset falls under the SEC or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and would create registration and anti-money laundering requirements for crypto companies. The SEC would keep authority over assets treated as securities and investment contracts, while the CFTC would gain authority over qualifying digital commodities and parts of the spot market currently outside its derivatives mandate.
Unresolved disputes include whether companies can pay rewards or interest to stablecoin holders, how the bill should treat decentralized finance developers, and whether ethics rules should cover officials with crypto holdings. A revised Senate Banking Committee draft permitted activity-based rewards while restricting passive yield paid solely for holding a stablecoin, but did not include the ethics language some lawmakers sought.
Alongside the congressional talks, the SEC is preparing rules that do not depend on the bill becoming law. The SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets on Aug. 18, including a $5 million exemption for startups, a $75 million fundraising exemption, and a safe harbor that could let certain tokens exit securities status after meeting specified conditions. Atkins said the commission can use its existing authority under federal securities laws if Congress fails to complete the bill, though he noted legislation would give the framework a firmer legal base than agency rulemaking alone.
Source: crypto.news
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