India's crude imports dropped to 4.7 million barrels a day in August from 5.05 million b/d in July, even as refiners postponed maintenance to protect high margins. Russian supply is the sharper constraint: Black Sea security risks and intensifying Chinese demand are making discounted barrels scarcer, pushing Indian refiners toward the Middle East and Latin America at a steeper cost.
India's overall crude oil imports fell in August, and Russia's share fell with them, a shift that ordinary seasonal patterns cannot fully explain. Refiners typically use this period for maintenance, but most postponed the work this year because the current crisis has produced strong margins on refined products. The bigger change sits on the supply side, where Russia is exporting less crude overall just as China competes harder for the same cargoes.
Refiners delay maintenance as demand holds up
India imported 2.08 million b/d of Russian crude in August, back to May levels after taking 2.8 million b/d in July. Total crude imports slipped to 4.7 million b/d from 5.05 million b/d, though the figure was still the highest August total in five years. BPCL's Mumbai refinery pushed planned September work to November, and MRPL shut a 60,000 b/d unit for four weeks rather than in normal maintenance season. Meanwhile, July diesel and petrol demand each ran about 10% higher than a year earlier, reaching 8.09 million and 3.82 million tonnes respectively, after monsoon rainfall came in roughly 15% below normal.
Russian barrels grow scarcer and pricier
Russian seaborne crude exports fell to 3.7 million b/d in August from 4.1 million b/d in July, with the drop concentrated at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where loadings fell to 616,000 b/d from 800,000 b/d. Ukrainian drone attacks have made Black Sea navigation riskier, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal has suffered repeated strikes, at one point suspending loadings for weeks. Shipping a Suezmax cargo from Novorossiysk to India's west coast now costs about $20 million, versus roughly $13 million from Baltic ports, pushing more Russian exporters toward the Northern Sea Route instead.
China outbids India for Russian crude
China's crude purchases rose to 7.4 million b/d in August from 6.9 million b/d in July, and its Russian imports climbed to 1.7 million b/d from 1.4 million b/d. Russia is also prioritizing domestic refining amid fuel shortages, leaving less crude for export, while Iran's drawdown of floating storage near China has left Chinese buyers with fewer alternatives.
India is widening its supplier base in response. The UAE lifted shipments to 520,000 b/d from 470,000 b/d, while Iraq recovered to 165,000 b/d after nearly vanishing from India's import mix earlier in the year. Saudi flows fell to 350,000 b/d from 415,000 b/d after the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure redirected Suez-bound cargoes to Europe. Russian crude is now trading at parity with dated Brent, leaving Indian refiners with little cheap alternative to Middle Eastern barrels heading into autumn.
Source: Oilprice.com
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