Russian oil shipments along the Northern Sea Route reached approximately 20 million barrels by mid-October 2026, a 50% increase on 2025. Difficult ice conditions, a shortage of suitable tankers and Western sanctions continue to undermine Russia's Arctic shipping ambitions.
Russia has shipped some 20 million barrels of oil along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) by mid-October, a 50% increase on 2025, Reuters reported, citing traders and shipping data. The volume still represents around 1% of Russia's total seaborne oil exports.
By the end of September, the Norway-funded Center for High North Logistics had reported that Russia shipped some 2 million tons of primarily crude-oil cargoes, about 15 million barrels, along the entire route to China and other Asian destinations. Most departed from the Barents Sea port of Murmansk. Readers new to the benchmark can find the basics in this crude oil explainer.
Tankers stuck at the Vilkitsky Strait
In July, a group of sanctioned Russian tankers dropped anchor some 1,300 kilometers north of the Arctic Circle after getting stuck near the Vilkitsky Strait, a 55-kilometer-wide choke point on the route. Help from two nuclear-powered icebreakers was several days' voyage away.
Only one tanker made it through, while the others waited up to two weeks before finding a different route. According to Ksenia Vakhrusheva of the environmental group Bellona, the episode is an example of one of the group's main messages: "less ice doesn't mean easier navigation".
Targets outpace the numbers
President Vladimir Putin said that 37 million tons of cargo moved along the route in 2025 and predicted the figure would almost double by 2030. Kremlin officials, however, were already chasing a target of 80 million tons by 2024 back in 2019.
Tomas Alexa, a senior analyst at maritime security consultancy Ambrey, said the surge comes from a relatively low base. He said Russia has launched a number of new Arctic-capable vessels, but its ability to build and maintain these and other infrastructure in the region is seriously hampered by Western sanctions. Spare parts and construction materials often have to go through third parties to avoid the sanctions, he said.
Other nations and spill risks
Other countries are testing the route too. On October 22, the South Korean government reported that its first container ship had used the NSR, while China ran a scheduled container service to Europe along it for the first time this year.
The EU has weighed in as well. EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas described the Arctic as a front line of global power competition on October 21 while outlining a new EU Arctic strategy.
Vakhrusheva also warned that Russia doesn't publish any information about incidents along the route, and that the remote area has no independent organizations that could report on an oil spill.
Source: Oilprice.com
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