Russia and China have moved from covert to more open military and intelligence support for Iran, supplying satellite tracking, navigation systems and air-defense weapons. The shift raises the geopolitical risk to oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, two chokepoints that together carry a large share of the world's crude and LNG.
Russia and China have shifted from covert backing of Iran toward open military and intelligence support, raising the geopolitical risk that the U.S.-Iran war disrupts oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Until recently, support from Tehran's key sponsors stayed largely diplomatic and economic, alongside deniable hardware such as microelectronics and missile-making materials.
Moscow and Beijing supply tracking data to Iran
U.S. intelligence reports now indicate Moscow is providing Iran with real-time satellite feeds and tracking data on U.S. warships and aircraft, enabling more precise Iranian retaliatory strikes, according to Oilprice.com. Moscow has also integrated its GLONASS satellite navigation system into Iranian drones, letting long-range projectiles bypass allied jamming. Iran's newest drones can track China's BeiDou-3 system at the same time, so standard Western jamming can no longer block both signals at once because they run on different radio frequencies.
Chinese weapons deliveries raise the stakes at Hormuz
Iran is separately acquiring up to 400 Chinese-made man-portable air-defense systems, weapons that lock onto an aircraft's heat signature and resist countermeasures. The systems weigh between 15 and 20 kilograms, and operators can finish basic training in less than a week, according to the report.
The stakes are high: Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 30% of the world's oil and around 10% of its liquefied natural gas flows. The Houthis, meanwhile, could widen their blockade of Saudi Arabian ports and ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which would lock out another 12% of global crude flows and 8% of LNG.
Beijing's leverage over Tehran's proxies
China's leverage runs deeper than arms sales. Under the Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement, Beijing controls much of Iran's oil and gas resources and holds sway over Tehran's proxies, including the Houthis, Oilprice.com reported. China remains Iran's biggest oil buyer, and Chinese-flagged tankers have continued sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait without incident, the report noted.
According to Oilprice.com: "the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting", a line the report attributes to Sun Tzu's The Art of War to describe Beijing's approach of letting Washington deplete its resources while China positions to broker U.S.-Iran peace.
The U.S. has signaled its willingness to confront any further widening of the war, at least regionally. On July 28-29, Washington and Saudi Arabia carried out joint strikes on Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces militia groups in Iraq. That followed a July 25 long-range drone strike by Ukraine in the Caspian Sea on vessels believed to be carrying Iranian Shahed drone components and missiles bound for Russia. Moscow may hope its own support for Iran buys leverage toward a more favorable settlement in Ukraine, though the report says that path looks less likely to succeed than Beijing's.
Source: Oilprice.com
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