Light crude oil (CL) remains stuck in an incomplete bearish Elliott Wave sequence that started at the September 16, 2026 high. The structure points to further downside, with a key resistance at $106.71 and a longer-term target zone between $67 and $78.
Wave count maps a five-leg decline
Oil has not finished its drop from the September 16, 2026 peak, according to the latest Elliott Wave count. From that high, the market fell in a five-wave impulsive formation: wave ((i)) ended at $99.10, then a brief rally in wave ((ii)) reached $103.48.
Sellers then pushed the market lower again. Wave ((iii)) finished at $94.22, and a modest wave ((iv)) recovery stalled at $96.85. The final leg, wave ((v)), ended at $88.71 and completed wave 1 at a higher degree.
A new bearish phase takes hold
After wave 1, oil corrected in a wave 2 zigzag that reached $96.78. The decline that followed broke below the wave 1 low, confirming that the next bearish phase had begun. From the wave 2 peak, wave ((i)) ended at $91.51, and a rally in wave ((ii)) reached $96.54 before sellers regained control.
Near-term bias stays lower
The near-term bias remains lower as long as oil trades below $106.71; any rally in that range should fail in three or seven swings. This expectation aligns with the incomplete sequence and supports the view that further downside remains likely.
A potential lower target can be measured as the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave 1, placing the target area at $67 to $78.
Source: ActionForex
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