A sweeping new round of US sanctions against Iran has done little to move oil off its recent range, with ICE Brent holding near $90 per barrel. Qatari and Pakistani mediation has so far failed to narrow the gap between Washington and Tehran, leaving Hormuz transit flows as the main driver of price moves ahead.
Sanctions Fail to Dent Oil's $90 Range
According to Oilprice.com: "toughest sanctions in history" against Iran did relatively little to push oil away from its comfort zone around $90 per barrel for ICE Brent. President Trump rejected extending the June memorandum of understanding in any form, leaving the on-and-off nature of Hormuz transits as the main driver of price moves in the coming days.
Hormuz Corridor Talks Advance, but the Strait Stays Shut
Iran and Oman are negotiating a temporary shipping corridor and have reported progress on control and revenue-sharing terms. Tehran, however, insists passage will remain blocked until Washington lifts sanctions, ends its blockade and pays compensation.
Saudi Aramco sold at least 4 million barrels of Arab Medium and Heavy crude to PetroChina for September loading outside the Hormuz strait, ramping up Gulf transits as loadings from Yanbu falter.
Europe Feels the Squeeze on Fuel Costs
The disruption is spilling into European energy policy. Six EU countries, including Germany and Spain, want September talks on an EU-wide windfall profit tax on oil companies as the Hormuz crisis inflates energy costs — European diesel has surged more than 70% since the war began, versus 25% for crude and 20% for gasoline.
Britain is also adjusting to the fallout. The UK's household energy price cap will rise to £1,723 from October as natural gas prices have doubled from pre-war levels, a move that threatens to push domestic energy debt from £6 billion currently toward £7 billion by year-end.
Source: Oilprice.com
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