UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri says Nvidia has moved to "de-spec" its upcoming Rubin Ultra chip, trimming memory per unit while shipping more chips overall. The shift could push total high-bandwidth-memory consumption above earlier forecasts by 2027, adding to already-tightening memory supply and pricing that Arcuri says favor Micron.
Nvidia is reworking its upcoming Rubin Ultra chip in a way that could send more memory business to Micron Technology, according to UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri. Arcuri wrote Monday that Nvidia has moved to "de-spec" Rubin Ultra, downgrading certain of the chip's capabilities. The Information had reported that Nvidia is testing versions of the chip with less memory because of concerns over high-bandwidth-memory supply.
The result could be less high-bandwidth memory per chip but more chips in the supply chain, which Arcuri said could lift total HBM consumption in 2027 above his earlier forecast. Nvidia did not immediately respond to a request for comment about Rubin Ultra.
HBM pricing keeps rewidening
Supply of high-bandwidth memory is tightening, and according to Arcuri, pricing for HBM4 and HBM4E is running "even stronger than our prior expectations." Micron's leadership in dynamic random-access memory has made it one of the top HBM producers, alongside South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Arcuri said memory suppliers are rewidening the price premium for HBM, which could push average selling prices up about 79% from a year earlier, compared with his prior estimate of a 67% increase.
NAND pricing also trends upward
Contract pricing for NAND flash memory is trending upward too, Arcuri noted, as better-than-expected demand for server and storage solid-state drives helps offset weakness in the personal-computer market. Sequential growth in NAND average selling prices may not be as strong as he first estimated, but he described the underlying demand backdrop as constructive. On that view, Arcuri raised his bit-demand growth forecast for the NAND industry to 23% this year and 26% in 2027.
Micron's earnings outlook brightens
Arcuri said he expects Micron's earnings per share to stay above $160 in 2029. He also forecast more than $450 billion in cumulative free cash flow through 2028. Micron's stock fell 1.9% on Monday but is up 202% so far this year.
Micron sees tight supply lasting past 2027
Micron's chief business officer, Sumit Sadana, said at a conference Monday that the company expects tight supply to persist beyond 2027 as customer demand keeps escalating. Speaking at the KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum, Sadana said memory demand in the AI era has looked markedly different from past memory-industry booms because the technology is improving quickly in its early stages.
Sadana said growing demand for HBM has pressured wafer supply for other memory components, and expanding that capacity is a lengthy process. Customers in Micron's data-center segment and other business lines remain eager for more product despite rising memory-chip prices, he added.
Source: MarketWatch
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