Nvidia's latest supply and capacity table shows $267 billion committed to memory procurement through fiscal 2029, then a sharp drop-off in fiscal 2030. Micron Technology, a key supplier of high-bandwidth memory and DRAM for Nvidia's GPUs, has surged alongside that spending, and the thinning order book beyond 2029 is drawing scrutiny.
A $267 billion commitment, then a cliff
Nvidia's CFO commentary tied to its second-quarter earnings report disclosed that total supply and capacity commitments rose from $119 billion to $279 billion, largely tied to memory. According to Nvidia's CFO: "primarily related to the procurement of memory."
The schedule breaks down as $92 billion for the remainder of fiscal 2027, $87 billion in fiscal 2028 and $88 billion in fiscal 2029, before falling to $6 billion in fiscal 2030, $5 billion in fiscal 2031 and $1 billion beyond that. That leaves $267 billion earmarked through fiscal 2029, which ends in January 2030. Not all of that spending flows to Micron specifically — SK Hynix and Samsung are also major HBM and DRAM suppliers to Nvidia, and some funds cover other components.
Why the timing matters for Micron
Micron shares are up 697% over the last year, riding the same memory boom driving Nvidia's spending. But Nvidia's fiscal year ends in January while Micron's ends in August, so Nvidia's last clearly funded year of heavy memory spend runs from February 2028 to January 2029 — a period that straddles the back of Micron's fiscal 2028 and the start of its fiscal 2029.
Shipments lag commitments, so Micron can still fill orders placed earlier well into 2029. A thin commitment table beyond that point does not by itself prove memory demand will collapse, since aging AI processors will eventually need replacing with new chips that still require HBM.
What could happen next
Markets are forward-looking, and Motley Fool contributor Adam Spatacco argues the moment Nvidia's low-commitment year enters investors' pricing window is February 2029 — when the market could start reassessing how it values Micron. He predicts Micron stock could peak sometime between December 2028 and January 2029 unless Nvidia raises its commitments well ahead of fiscal 2030. Whether HBM stays in short supply will decide who holds the pricing power when that moment arrives.
Source: The Motley Fool
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