New Zealand's ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index eased one point to 98.0 in August, still below neutral but well clear of its April low. Households remain cautious about current conditions but increasingly optimistic about the years ahead, a backdrop that gives the Reserve Bank of New Zealand little fresh signal before its September 2 rate decision.
Confidence steadies below neutral, but off its lows
New Zealand's ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index slipped one point in August to 98.0, 18 points above its April low but still short of the neutral 100 mark. Current conditions eased from 88.5 to 83.4. Future conditions, meanwhile, rose to 107.7, widening the gap between how households feel now and what they expect ahead.
A net 21% of respondents said they were worse off than a year ago. But a net 22% expect to be better off next year, the strongest such reading since January. The five-year outlook rose to +13%, its best level since May 2021, suggesting households increasingly see recent difficulties as temporary rather than structural.
Petrol prices weigh on sentiment even as inflation expectations hold
ANZ attributed some of the softness in current sentiment to higher petrol prices in August, though these have since stabilized. Discretionary card spending is trending higher as Middle East disruption fades, the bank noted. Two-year-ahead inflation expectations held at 4.7%, still well above target. House price inflation expectations eased slightly, from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Those elevated inflation expectations are unlikely on their own to sway the Committee's interest rate call.
RBNZ faces a genuine split on September 2
The Reserve Bank raised the Official Cash Rate to 2.50% in July by consensus, since noting eased near-term inflation pressure following a partial Hormuz reopening. Economists remain divided over the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement, split between holding and a further 25 basis point hike to 2.75%.
That split mirrors the survey itself, caught between near-term caution and longer-term optimism.
Source: Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
