Nine of 15 U.S. grid regions face elevated or high risk of falling short on electricity supply by 2030, according to a NERC assessment. AI-driven data-center growth and slow transmission buildout are straining a grid that was not designed for this pace of demand.
Nine out of 15 U.S. grid regions are at elevated or high risk of falling short of electricity demand as soon as 2030, according to an assessment the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) published in January. High risk means demand will likely outstrip supply in a business-as-usual scenario; elevated risk means resources are currently adequate but could face critical shortfalls during extreme weather. New York and Pennsylvania are among the populous states served by these at-risk grids.
AI-driven demand outpaces the last decade
NERC points to data-center growth tied to the artificial intelligence boom as the leading driver. U.S. electricity consumption is projected to rise by nearly 2% annually through 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, more than doubling the growth rate of the past ten years. Electric vehicles and electrified heating and cooling add further load on top of that.
A growing share of intermittent, weather-dependent wind and solar power compounds the strain, since battery storage and longer-term storage solutions have not kept pace with new generation capacity.
Transmission buildout is falling behind
Grid expansion is struggling to keep up. Of nearly 900 transmission projects under construction or in planning over the next decade, according to NERC: "at least 390 projects have been delayed from their originally expected in-service dates." Procurement risk, supply-chain delays, permitting issues and a more crowded, more complex generator interconnection process are all cited as contributing factors.
An Atmos report cited in the piece warns that in the short term, imbalance can mean pushing more power down lines than they are rated to carry, risking equipment failure, and over time can cause outages during peak demand.
The stakes go beyond economics
Peak demand periods are typically driven by extreme heat or cold, when heating and cooling are a matter of necessity rather than comfort. A study published in The Lancet in February found that nearly half a million people died of heat worldwide each year between 2000 and 2019, and estimated that air conditioning prevents approximately 190,000 of those deaths annually. Cold weather poses a similarly growing threat to human life. Grid operators can streamline interconnection reviews, utilities and regional planners can build transmission ahead of need, and large power users can be coordinated with new generation and grid upgrades, according to the Atmos report.
Source: Oilprice.com
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