Natixis has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 from $4,600 to $5,000 per ounce, as pressure on the Federal Reserve and doubts over the US dollar drive investors toward precious metals. Gold- and Bitcoin-focused ETFs have pulled in billions over the past five days, even as TD Securities warns the rally has not yet matured.
Natixis lifts its 2026 gold target to $5,000
Natixis raised its year-end 2026 gold forecast from $4,600 to $5,000 per ounce. The firm points out that the rally began before the Treasury announced an increase in the minimum volume of its long-term bond purchases. Instead, a run of disappointing US economic reports shifted the futures market's outlook: traders had anticipated two rounds of monetary tightening, and now doubt even one.
Pressure on the Fed fuels a debasement trade
The White House has renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve, including fresh attempts to remove Lisa Cook from her post as FOMC governor, phone conversations between Donald Trump and Kevin Warsh, and the Treasury's intention to use non-market methods to rein in Treasury yields. Together, these moves are eroding confidence in the US dollar and triggering a shift often described as a debasement trade, in which investors move away from currencies and bonds toward precious metals and cryptocurrencies.
That shift shows up in fund flows. Over the past five days, gold- and Bitcoin-focused ETFs have attracted around $7 billion, with $3.4 billion of that, almost half, going into State Street Investment Management's SPDR Gold Shares ETF.
Dollar rebounds as inflation data supports the Fed's case
The US dollar has recouped almost half of the losses it incurred after the Treasury's plans to intervene in the bond market to control yields, as investors grow sceptical about the scale and effectiveness of such measures. Inflation data has added further support: in July, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year, while core PCE stood at 3.3%, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Following those numbers, derivatives have priced in a 40% chance of a Fed rate hike in September.
TD Securities notes that precious metals are settling into new, higher trading ranges, but it warns against euphoria over a rally to record highs, arguing the conditions for that have not yet matured. The price pullback ahead of Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole is cited as evidence of that caution.
Source: ActionForex
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