Stacks co-founder Muneeb Ali says Bitcoin has roughly two years to upgrade and about two more to move coins before quantum computing risks intensify. He also warned that quantum-safe signatures could cut Bitcoin's transaction capacity to roughly 10% of current levels.
Muneeb Ali gave Bitcoin a four-year clock for its post-quantum upgrade. Speaking at Token2049 Singapore on October 8, 2026, the Stacks co-founder said Bitcoin has roughly two years to upgrade, then about two more years to move coins.
Two phases, four years
Ali split the problem in two. Phase one is getting quantum-resistant signatures into Bitcoin, which he put at approximately two years.
Phase two is migration. Once the tools exist, holders still have to move their coins into addresses protected by the new signature schemes, and Ali allotted about two additional years for that step.
The timeline lines up with NIST guidance, according to Crypto Briefing. That guidance calls for phasing out schemes such as ECDSA after 2030, with full retirement by 2035. ECDSA is the cryptography that currently proves Bitcoin owners control their coins.
A capacity cost
Quantum-safe signatures carry a price. Ali warned that adopting them could cut Bitcoin's effective transaction capacity to roughly 10% of its current levels.
The research behind the keynote describes this as pushing activity off-chain. Bitcoin's base layer would remain the settlement anchor, while everyday transactions migrate to systems built on top. Ali positioned Stacks as a post-quantum layer that sits on top of that base settlement.
Stacks lays out its roadmap
The keynote also previewed what Stacks Labs plans to build. The roadmap rests on three pillars: Bitcoin capital markets, institutional privacy and post-quantum security. Stacks Labs is pursuing a two-year plan centered on privacy and post-quantum technology, with a stated goal of a 100x increase in network capacity.
Ali is set to return as CEO of Stacks Labs on October 15, 2026, a week after the Singapore keynote. In September 2026, Stacks launched Genesis Bond, a self-custodial Bitcoin staking product.
That leaves Stacks building its post-quantum layer over roughly the same two years Ali says Bitcoin has to upgrade.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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